Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:51:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

BC 0xbca5…abd0 sports 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real

Total PnL +$1 (+7%) realized +$2 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip

Net edge+3%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate100%4W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$2per market

Trades / day2.4pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit67%portable

Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)+3.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	+14.2%	+3.4%	100%	50%	+2.3%
≤30d	4	+14.2%	+3.4%	100%	50%	+2.3%
≤90d	4	+14.2%	+3.4%	100%	50%	+2.3%
all	4	+14.2%	+3.4%	100%	50%	+2.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.4 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+3.4%	50%	+2.3%
10%	-6.5%	50%	-7.4%
15%	-15.6%	0%	-16.4%
20%	-23.8%	0%	-24.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 38% · top 2 77% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +13% too few recent

Fragile wins

50% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +14% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$0 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$4

Realized+$2

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses4 / 0

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions2

Markets (closed)4 / 6

History coverage3d

Avg bet$2

Trades / day2.4

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	91¢	80¢	$4	$4	−$0 (-12%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5	Over	88¢	63¢	$1	$1	−$0 (-28%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Jun 14	$2	$0	+23%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$2	$0	+6%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 0.5	Jun 12	$2	$0	+23%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T?	Jun 12	$4	$0	+5%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	90¢	$1	1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5	BUY Over	88¢	$1	1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	92¢	$3	12h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13?	BUY No	94¢	$2	2d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	BUY Yes	81¢	$2	2d
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 0.5	BUY Over	81¢	$2	2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T?	SELL No	100¢	$4	2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T?	BUY No	94¢	$4	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.39 · official $4.39 (match) · 11 history records