Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:03:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
BC 0xbca6…c904 other 114 markets active 2h ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate9%10W / 101L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$301per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$122now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$20
politics 37% −$14
crypto 4% −$1
sports 4% +$18
tech 2% −$1
economics 2% −$1
world 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 96 -2.0% -11.3% 5% 3% -9.6%
all 111 -2.3% -11.6% 9% 6% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 6% -9.6%
10% -20.1% 5% -18.2%
15% -27.8% 5% -26.1%
20% -34.9% 4% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -5% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$1 · ×8.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$122
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses10 / 101
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)111 / 114
History coverage118d
Avg bet$301
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 111 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-0%)
Will Solana reach $140 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 23 $358 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $628 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $310 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $311 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 12 $236 $0 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $254 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $245 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $645 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $333 $0 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 05 $233 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $329 −$1 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 04 $547 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $572 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $668 −$1 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $531 −$1 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $1,201 −$2 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 01 $243 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $261 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 30 $276 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $320 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 27 $264 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $276 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 27 $268 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $277 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Apr 26 $260 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $246 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 24 $254 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 24 $345 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 24 $333 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $410 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 22 $274 $0 -0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 21 $303 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 21 $262 $0 +0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $328 $0 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $347 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $241 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $521 −$1 -0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 19 $245 $0 -0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 18 $296 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $266 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $248 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $246 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $303 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $953 −$1 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $252 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $545 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $284 −$1 -0%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $262 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $344 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $531 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Solana reach $140 in June? BUY No 100¢ $35 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $39 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in June? BUY No 100¢ $48 1h
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $28 1h
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $28 2d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $313 24d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $313 27d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $315 27d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $315 28d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $310 29d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $310 33d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $311 34d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $311 37d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $236 41d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $236 46d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $254 47d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $254 47d
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $245 47d
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $245 48d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $334 48d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $334 48d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $333 48d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $333 49d
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $233 49d
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $233 49d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $329 49d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $329 49d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $281 49d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $281 50d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $278 50d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $121.90 · official $121.90 (match) · 315 history records