Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:21:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
BC 0xbca6…7f7c sports 14 markets active 3d ago coverage 203d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$3,727 (+33%) realized +$3,727 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate71%10W / 4L
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$814per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$24
14 days+$47
30 days+$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$3,759
world 0% −$28
crypto 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+4.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +85.2% +67.5% 100% 100% +67.5%
≤30d 7 +29.2% +16.9% 71% 43% +50.2%
≤90d 8 +26.2% +14.2% 75% 38% +47.3%
all 14 +15.0% +4.0% 71% 43% +20.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.0% 43% +20.1%
10% -5.9% 36% +8.6%
15% -15.0% 29% -1.9%
20% -23.4% 21% -11.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 74% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +63% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +29% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$446 vs −$183 · ×2.44 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.09 per $1 lost it wins $6.09
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

203d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3,727
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses10 / 4
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage203d
Avg bet$814
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Jun 19 $29 +$24 +85%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $8 +$22 +285%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Zachary Svajda Jun 13 $18 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET May 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs NRG (BO5) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playoffs May 24 $4 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET May 24 $5 +$1 +15%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 19 $4 $0 +5%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? Mar 15 $28 −$28 -100%
Giants vs. Patriots Dec 01 $700 −$700 -100%
Pelicans vs. Lakers Dec 01 $2,760 +$240 +9%
49ers vs. Browns Dec 01 $2,130 +$870 +41%
Ohio State vs. Michigan Nov 30 $3,900 +$1,100 +28%
Bulls vs. Hornets Nov 29 $1,800 +$2,200 +122%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 54¢ $29 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 26¢ $2 8d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 26¢ $4 8d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 26¢ $2 8d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 26¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 9d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Zachary Svajda BUY Flavio Cobolli 91¢ $14 21d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Zachary Svajda BUY Flavio Cobolli 91¢ $5 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 27d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs NRG (BO5) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playoffs SELL G2 Esports 46¢ $5 29d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs NRG (BO5) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playoffs BUY G2 Esports 42¢ $4 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Up 46¢ $6 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? SELL Yes $2 34d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? SELL Yes $2 34d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? BUY Yes $1 34d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? BUY Yes $1 34d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? BUY Yes $2 34d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? BUY Yes 14¢ $28 99d
Giants vs. Patriots BUY Giants 25¢ $700 203d
Pelicans vs. Lakers BUY Lakers 92¢ $2,760 203d
49ers vs. Browns BUY 49ers 71¢ $2,130 204d
Ohio State vs. Michigan BUY Ohio State 78¢ $3,900 205d
Bulls vs. Hornets BUY Hornets 45¢ $1,800 206d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 33 history records