Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:18:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BC 0xbca8…c6c0 other 54 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$450 (-18%) realized −$450 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate40%19W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day7.7pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit37%portable
Net worth$133now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$462
7 days−$811
14 days−$494
30 days−$494
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% −$315
sports 23% −$76
world 4% −$102
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-40.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -51.1% -55.8% 29% 24% -57.4%
≤30d 48 -34.6% -40.9% 40% 31% -28.9%
≤90d 48 -34.6% -40.9% 40% 31% -28.9%
all 48 -34.6% -40.9% 40% 31% -28.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.9% 31% -28.9%
10% -46.5% 23% -35.7%
15% -51.7% 17% -41.9%
20% -56.4% 8% -47.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -56% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$32 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$133
Realized−$450
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses19 / 29
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions6
Markets (closed)48 / 54
History coverage10d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit37%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $100 $104 +$4 (+4%)
Will a player representing England be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 78¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-11%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Detroit Tigers 53¢ 56¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 75¢ 74¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-89%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 +$24 +234%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $51 −$51 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 22 $102 −$102 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 2 South Africa? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 22 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 22 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $102 −$11 -11%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 +$3 +33%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 +$7 +36%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 +$6 +31%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $10 $0 +3%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series Jun 17 $1 $0 +36%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $102 +$19 +19%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 +$10 +51%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $104 +$7 +7%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $102 +$39 +38%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$9 -88%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $103 −$42 -41%
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $51 −$1 -3%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lulu Sun vs Anhelina Kalinin Jun 15 $1 $0 +13%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $102 +$82 +80%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $102 +$49 +48%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 18? Jun 15 $10 $0 -3%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $152 +$6 +4%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $71 +$23 +33%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$16 +16%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $103 +$127 +123%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $112 +$19 +17%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 −$4 -43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 84¢ $34 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 2h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 4h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 11¢ $5 13h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $102 13h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 70¢ $90 2d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 76¢ $102 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 53¢ $20 3d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 84¢ $51 3d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $51 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 3d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $102 3d
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 2 South Africa? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 3d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL No 97¢ $14 4d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 99¢ $28 4d
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 20¢ $1 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 53¢ $10 4d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY No 71¢ $10 4d
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl SELL Nuclear TigeRES 54¢ $11 4d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY No 75¢ $20 4d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 71¢ $20 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $102 4d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 86¢ $121 4d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Jordan 89¢ $31 4d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 4d
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 50¢ $10 5d
Dota 2: Carstensz vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series BUY Carstensz 72¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $133.06 · official $133.06 (match) · 116 history records