Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T13:38:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

BC
0xbca9…d17c
other · 15 markets active 1h ago
1.0score
−$264 -15%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$268 · open −$6
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$619
Realized−$268
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses2 / 5
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions8
Markets (closed)7 / 15
History coverage1d
Avg bet$114
Trades / day17.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%
Chart Positions 8 History 7 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$268
7 days−$268
14 days−$268
30 days−$268
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Under 53¢ 54¢ $160 $162 +$2 (+1%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Under 56¢ 56¢ $160 $159 −$1 (-1%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $80 $79 −$1 (-2%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-3%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-5%)
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-5%)
Haiti vs. Scotland: Draw at halftime? Yes 60¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 3 Türkiye? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 83¢ 0¢ $516 $0 −$516 (-100%)
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $120 $0 −$120 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $61 +$272 +442%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $172 +$137 +79%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 3 Türkiye? Jun 14 $14 −$14 -97%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $23 −$22 -97%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $123 −$120 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $518 −$516 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 51% +$10
other 45% −$283
crypto 4% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 9¢ $26 57m
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 12¢ $41 58m
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $82 58m
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $162 59m
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 56¢ $162 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 55¢ $155 1h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 1h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 16¢ $41 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 56¢ $162 1h
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 3 Türkiye? BUY Yes 6¢ $14 10h
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? BUY Yes 12¢ $23 10h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $61 10h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $123 10h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $172 10h
Haiti vs. Scotland: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 60¢ $5 12h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 83¢ $518 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +3.1% -6.7% 29% 29% -36.1%
≤30d 7 +3.1% -6.7% 29% 29% -36.1%
≤90d 7 +3.1% -6.7% 29% 29% -36.1%
all 7 +3.1% -6.7% 29% 29% -36.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover17.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.7% 29% -36.1%
10% -15.7% 29% -42.3%
15% -23.8% 29% -47.8%
20% -31.3% 29% -53.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $619.25 · official $619.25 (match) · 19 history records