Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:00:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BC 0xbca9…d5c2 crypto 89 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$16 (-7%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%42W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day6.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$1
14 days−$18
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 -1.6% -11.0% 52% 52% -8.4%
≤30d 89 -9.7% -18.3% 47% 47% -16.8%
≤90d 89 -9.7% -18.3% 47% 47% -16.8%
all 89 -9.7% -18.3% 47% 47% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.3% 47% -16.8%
10% -26.1% 47% -24.8%
15% -33.3% 47% -32.0%
20% -39.8% 47% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses42 / 47
Open positions0
Markets (closed)89 / 89
History coverage14d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day6.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 89 Trades
no open positions (44 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +83%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +76%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +79%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +86%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +76%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$2 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +79%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +82%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +86%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +85%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$3 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +97%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +93%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$3 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$3 +101%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 08 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 50m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 5h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 10h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 27h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 28h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 28h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 29h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 30h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 30h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 44h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 44h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 140 history records