Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:25:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BC 0xbcb2…bb2b crypto 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (64 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$517 (-8%) realized −$517 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate45%10W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$312per market
Trades / day64.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,410
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (64 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-26.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -19.2% -26.9% 45% 41% -25.5%
≤30d 22 -19.2% -26.9% 45% 41% -25.5%
≤90d 22 -19.2% -26.9% 45% 41% -25.5%
all 22 -19.2% -26.9% 45% 41% -25.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover64.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.9% 41% -25.5%
10% ← realistic here -33.9% 41% -32.7%
15% -40.3% 41% -39.2%
20% -46.1% 32% -45.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$201 vs −$285 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$517
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses10 / 12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)22 / 22
History coverage1d
Avg bet$312
Trades / day64.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 22 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 19 $337 −$337 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 19 $448 −$392 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 19 $207 +$160 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 19 $311 +$278 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 19 $52 +$68 +130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 19 $364 −$336 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 19 $311 −$300 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 19 $276 −$262 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 19 $242 −$130 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 19 $577 +$411 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 19 $207 −$16 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 19 $245 −$207 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 19 $412 +$418 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 19 $91 +$9 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 19 $220 −$210 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 19 $412 +$205 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 19 $262 +$156 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 19 $238 −$226 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 19 $622 −$600 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 19 $412 +$207 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 19 $412 −$400 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 19 $205 +$94 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $209 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $137 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Up 29¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $206 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $367 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $207 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $113 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $198 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $120 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Up 4¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $206 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $207 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Down 87¢ $421 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $106 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 70 history records