Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T00:28:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
BC 0xbcb4…da2c crypto 65 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (196 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$96 (-1%) realized −$96 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate72%47W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$125per market
Trades / day196.0pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$832
weather 1% −$6
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (196 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-22.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 -14.2% -22.4% 72% 14% -18.8%
≤30d 65 -14.2% -22.4% 72% 14% -18.8%
≤90d 65 -14.2% -22.4% 72% 14% -18.8%
all 65 -14.2% -22.4% 72% 14% -18.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover196.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.4% 14% -18.8%
10% ← realistic here -29.8% 5% -26.6%
15% -36.6% 2% -33.7%
20% -42.8% 2% -40.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$67 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$96
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses47 / 18
Open positions0
Markets (closed)65 / 65
History coverage1d
Avg bet$125
Trades / day196.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 65 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 20 $380 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 20 $202 −$202 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 19 $443 +$21 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 19 $200 +$2 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 19 $200 −$200 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 19 $102 +$4 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 19 $292 +$6 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 19 $61 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 19 $20 +$1 +6%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 19 $66 +$3 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 19 $101 +$5 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 19 $202 +$30 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 19 $101 +$4 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 19 $101 +$8 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 19 $61 −$61 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 19 $204 +$68 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 19 $301 +$9 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 19 $101 +$7 +7%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 19 $60 +$4 +6%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 19 $60 +$1 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 19 $58 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 20? Jun 19 $56 −$3 -5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 19 $464 −$464 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 19 $441 +$20 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 19 $400 +$5 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 19 $401 +$18 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 19 $401 +$16 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 19 $101 −$100 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 19 $101 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 19 $300 +$3 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 19 $101 +$6 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 19 $51 +$18 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 19 $40 +$7 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 19 $101 +$8 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 19 $401 +$16 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 19 $100 $0 +0%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 19 $101 +$12 +12%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 19 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 19 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 19 $81 −$39 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 19 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 19 $50 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 19 $40 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 19 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 19 $130 +$10 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 19 $100 +$5 +5%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 −$1 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 20? Jun 19 $37 −$3 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $380 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $101 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $101 24m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $201 38m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $256 40m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $101 40m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $141 41m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 43m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 43m
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $200 48m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Down 80¢ $60 53m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Down 80¢ $4 53m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Down 80¢ $20 53m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Down 80¢ $23 53m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $102 55m
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $92 59m
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 59m
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $100 59m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $61 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $10 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $69 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $50 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $16 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $11 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $6 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $11 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $10 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $4 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 236 history records