Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T03:15:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BC 0xbcb7…6095 other 114 markets active 2h ago coverage 647d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$11 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$11
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate26%29W / 84L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$88per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$849now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$57
7 days−$57
14 days−$57
30 days−$57
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% −$7
crypto 14% −$44
politics 12% −$9
sports 9% −$1
finance 3% +$92
culture 3% +$12
economics 1% −$35
weather 0% $0
world 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -7.1% -16.0% 0% 0% -16.0%
≤30d 2 -3.6% -12.7% 50% 0% -14.9%
≤90d 2 -3.6% -12.7% 50% 0% -14.9%
all 113 -6.0% -14.9% 26% 5% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 5% -9.6%
10% -23.1% 2% -18.2%
15% -30.5% 1% -26.1%
20% -37.3% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% too few recent
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$5 · ×2.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

647d coverage
Net worth$849
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses29 / 84
Open positions1
Markets (closed)113 / 114
History coverage647d
Avg bet$88
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 113 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $838 $849 +$11 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $804 −$57 -7%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $159 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group B Mar 22 $10 +$2 +20%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Mar 22 $105 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 21 $110 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140+ tweets from January 1 to January 3, 2026? Jan 03 $1,246 +$140 +11%
Will Alaves win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jan 02 $112 $0 +0%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 2? Jan 02 $316 +$92 +29%
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? Dec 11 $140 +$16 +12%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 22 $139 +$1 +0%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31? Oct 08 $232 +$36 +16%
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 08 $103 $0 -0%
Will Girona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 25 $1 $0 -0%
Will Real Sociedad win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 25 $1 $0 -0%
Will Rayo Vallecano win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 25 $1 $0 -0%
Will Levante win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 25 $1 $0 -0%
Will Osasuna win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 25 $1 $0 -0%
Will Mallorca win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 25 $1 $0 -0%
Will Betis win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 25 $1 $0 -0%
Will Oviedo win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 25 $1 $0 -0%
Will Celta Vigo win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 25 $1 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 25 $1 $0 -1%
Will Valencia win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 23 $1 $0 -0%
Will Sevilla win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 23 $1 $0 -0%
Will Espanyol win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 23 $1 $0 -0%
Will Getafe win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 23 $1 $0 -0%
Will Elche win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 23 $106 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 165–179 times August 1–August 8? Aug 10 $106 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 210–224 times July 25–August 1? Aug 04 $65 $0 +0%
US recession in 2025? Jul 30 $100 −$35 -35%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Jul 01 $20 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in May? Jun 02 $104 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in April? May 08 $34 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by March 31? Apr 05 $10 $0 +1%
Bournemouth wins the Premier League? Apr 05 $24 $0 +0%
Will Trump say 'Elon' or 'Musk' during the 2025 State of the Union? Mar 06 $15 +$9 +59%
Will Elon tweet 900 or more times Feb 21-28? Mar 05 $1 $0 +5%
Will Elon tweet 850-899 times Feb 21-28? Mar 05 $1 $0 +8%
Will Elon tweet 450-499 times Feb 21-28? Mar 05 $3 $0 +0%
Ethereum above $2,800 on February 28? Mar 05 $5 $0 +5%
Will "Anora" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars? Feb 25 $280 +$12 +4%
Will Elon tweet 400-449 times Feb 21-28? Feb 25 $3 $0 +0%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Feb 24 $413 −$1 -0%
Will Bybit hacker return stolen ETH by next Friday? Feb 24 $414 $0 -0%
Will Kanye launch a coin in February? Feb 24 $756 +$66 +9%
Bitcoin above $99,000 on February 28? Feb 24 $193 −$23 -12%
Ethereum all time high by March 31? Feb 24 $24 −$16 -67%
Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Feb 21-28? Feb 24 $326 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-02-25? Feb 24 $1 $0 +0%
Chelsea wins the Premier League? Feb 23 $14 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $86 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $80 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $44 4h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $379 6h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $78 6h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 6h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $69 6h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $12 6h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $39 7h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $36 7h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $31 7h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $4 7h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 7h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $4 7h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 7h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 7h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $40 7h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $746 7h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $12 7h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 8h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $5 8h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 8h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $804 8h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $81 9h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group B SELL 9z $12 98d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group B BUY 9z $10 98d
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $110 127d
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $110 176d
Will Elon Musk post 140+ tweets from January 1 to January 3, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $117 177d
Will Alaves win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL No 100¢ $111 177d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $849.22 · official $849.22 (match) · 447 history records