Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:34:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
BC 0xbcb7…e997 crypto 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$36 (-5%) realized −$36 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate64%14W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day41.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -5.0% -14.1% 64% 59% -11.4%
≤30d 22 -5.0% -14.1% 64% 59% -11.4%
≤90d 22 -5.0% -14.1% 64% 59% -11.4%
all 22 -5.0% -14.1% 64% 59% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.1% 59% -11.4%
10% ← realistic here -22.3% 45% -19.9%
15% -29.8% 36% -27.6%
20% -36.7% 23% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$36 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$36
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses14 / 8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)22 / 22
History coverage2d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day41.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 22 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $47 +$52 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $47 +$34 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $31 +$8 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $88 +$61 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 17 $48 −$47 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $31 +$48 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $42 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $31 +$13 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$3 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$3 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $69 +$41 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $48 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$4 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$5 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $113 −$113 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $8 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $8 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $15 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $31 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $8 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $8 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $53 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $15 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $13 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $8 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $31 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $8 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $127 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $21 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $28 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 74 history records