Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:11:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BC 0xbcb7…eb42 crypto 22 markets active 6d ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate68%15W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 21d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+1.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -19.9% -27.6% 67% 33% -27.2%
≤30d 22 +11.9% +1.2% 68% 36% -12.0%
≤90d 22 +11.9% +1.2% 68% 36% -12.0%
all 22 +11.9% +1.2% 68% 36% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.2% 36% -12.0%
10% -8.5% 27% -20.5%
15% -17.3% 27% -28.1%
20% -25.4% 18% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 57% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +25% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$18 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses15 / 7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)22 / 22
History coverage21d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 22 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 21 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 21 $36 −$11 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET May 21 $8 +$4 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET May 21 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 21 $53 +$32 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 21 $53 +$19 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET May 21 $53 +$10 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET May 21 $19 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 21 $9 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET May 21 $17 +$31 +184%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET May 21 $13 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 21 $9 +$10 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET May 21 $9 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET May 21 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET May 21 $9 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET May 21 $10 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET May 21 $8 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET May 21 $10 −$4 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET May 21 $1 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 76¢ $1 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 6¢ $1 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $11 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $10 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $12 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 67¢ $13 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $12 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $12 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $8 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $53 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $53 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $53 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $53 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $53 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Down 40¢ $3 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $6 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Down 40¢ $5 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Down 41¢ $6 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $9 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $9 27d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $9 27d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $9 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 70 history records