Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:20:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BC 0xbcbc…96a1 crypto 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$308 (-33%) realized −$308 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate39%11W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 9d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% −$178
crypto 35% −$62
other 13% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -3.1% -12.3% 41% 37% -36.7%
≤30d 28 -3.6% -12.8% 39% 36% -35.2%
≤90d 28 -3.6% -12.8% 39% 36% -35.2%
all 28 -3.6% -12.8% 39% 36% -35.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 36% -35.2%
10% -21.1% 32% -41.4%
15% -28.8% 29% -47.1%
20% -35.8% 25% -52.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 58% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +44% → late -52% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$30 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$308
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses11 / 17
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)28 / 29
History coverage9d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 28 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $46 −$4 -9%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 AND Austria to score first vs. Jordan? AND Jun 17 $23 +$69 +307%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 17 $36 −$35 -97%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $56 −$56 -100%
Will Niger vs. Mauritania end in a draw? Jun 17 $202 −$202 -100%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $4 +$15 +360%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $66 +$72 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $21 +$10 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $31 −$6 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$7 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 16 $52 +$6 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$36 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$23 +90%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $51 −$43 -85%
Will Niger win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $125 −$22 -18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 58¢ $9 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 21¢ $42 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 22¢ $46 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $26 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $9 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 10h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria 99¢ $19 11h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 21¢ $4 11h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 AND Austria to score first vs. Jordan? AND BUY 24¢ $23 13h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $137 14h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $66 16h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals 42¢ $24 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $31 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Down 4¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Down 46¢ $24 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $9.00 · 75 history records