trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $2 | $2 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting? | Yes | 92¢ | 92¢ | $2 | $2 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Will Paraguay win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 99¢ | 99¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8AM ET | Down | 1¢ | 0¢ | $21 | $0 | −$21 (-100%) |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9AM ET | Up | 5¢ | 0¢ | $5 | $0 | −$5 (-100%) |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10AM ET | Up | 0¢ | 0¢ | $10 | $0 | −$10 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Bank of Korea make no change to the base rate after the May M | Jun 13 | $2 | $0 | +6% |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 | Jun 13 | $2 | $0 | +3% |
| Will ByteDance have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026? | Jun 13 | $4 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on May 13? | May 20 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10AM ET | May 19 | $10 | −$10 | -99% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9AM ET | May 19 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8AM ET | May 19 | $21 | −$21 | -100% |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me | May 19 | $8,973 | −$11 | -0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? | May 19 | $8,975 | −$12 | -0% |
| Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Co | May 12 | $4 | $0 | +10% |
| Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 15°C on April 12? | May 12 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Benoît Payan win the Marseille mayor election? | Apr 11 | $1 | $0 | +9% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? | Apr 11 | $2 | $0 | +11% |
| Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? | Apr 11 | $4 | $0 | +0% |
| Will "DtMF - Bad Bunny" be the #1 song on Spotify this week? | Mar 16 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru | Mar 16 | $3 | $0 | +6% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? | Mar 16 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Google have the top AI model at the end of January 2026? | Feb 10 | $1 | $0 | +10% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 3? | Jan 03 | $5,155 | +$5 | +0% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on December 26? | Jan 03 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $102,000 December 22-28? | Jan 03 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | +3.2% | -6.7% | 100% | 0% | -7.3% |
| ≤30d | 9 | -32.3% | -38.7% | 44% | 0% | -9.8% |
| ≤90d | 17 | -14.9% | -23.0% | 71% | 6% | -9.8% |
| all | 21 | -11.6% | -20.0% | 76% | 5% | -9.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -20.0% | 5% | -9.7% |
| 10% | -27.7% | 0% | -18.4% |
| 15% | -34.7% | 0% | -26.3% |
| 20% | -41.1% | 0% | -33.5% |