Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:41:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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BC 0xbcbf…557f crypto 1770 markets active 0h ago coverage 57d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 56d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$60 (+3%) realized +$60 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate94%1717W / 109L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day31.4pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$119
7 days−$118
14 days−$115
30 days−$114
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% +$3
other 7% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 310 -17.7% -25.6% 80% 1% -26.8%
≤30d 755 -6.8% -15.7% 90% 1% -17.6%
≤90d 1826 -2.9% -12.1% 94% 2% -14.0%
all 1826 -2.9% -12.1% 94% 2% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.1% 2% -14.0%
10% ← realistic here -20.5% 0% -22.2%
15% -28.2% 0% -29.7%
20% -35.2% 0% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$60
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses1717 / 109
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1826 / 1770
History coverage57d ⚠
Avg bet$1
Trades / day31.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1826 Trades
no open positions (89 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Hyperliquid Up or Down - March 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - March 29, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 9, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 11, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 19, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 31, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - March 24, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 11, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 2AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 9, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 19, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 8, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 11, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - March 22, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 11, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 10, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - March 18, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 18, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 23, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - March 27, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 10, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 30, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 20, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 10, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 19, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - April 8, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 9, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 10, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - March 25, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - March 18, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 17, 9AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $2 27m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $2 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $2 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $2 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $2 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $2 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $2 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $2 8h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $2 9h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $2 11h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 13h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $2 14h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 17h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $2 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $2 18h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 19h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $2 23h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $2 23h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $2 24h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $2 25h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $2 25h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $2 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $2 25h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $2 25h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.05 · official $2.05 (match) · 3500 history records