Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:10:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BC 0xbcc1…50db other 843 markets active 2h ago coverage 221d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$28 (-0%) realized +$119 · open −$147
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate30%248W / 571L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day12.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$247now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$52
7 days−$160
14 days−$359
30 days−$514
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% +$219
crypto 27% −$598
politics 6% +$217
finance 4% −$35
sports 3% −$54
tech 1% −$16
world 1% −$40
economics 0% −$9
weather 0% −$3
culture 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -20.2% -27.8% 24% 21% -44.1%
≤30d 142 -26.9% -33.9% 26% 20% -32.7%
≤90d 214 -16.4% -24.4% 27% 23% -28.1%
all 819 -6.4% -15.3% 30% 25% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.3% 25% -11.2%
10% -23.4% 20% -19.7%
15% -30.8% 18% -27.5%
20% -37.6% 15% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$5 · ×2.07 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

221d coverage
Net worth$247
Realized+$119
Unrealized−$147
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses248 / 571
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions24
Markets (closed)819 / 843
History coverage221d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day12.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 24 History 819 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Yes 26¢ 24¢ $130 $122 −$8 (-6%)
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? Yes 55¢ 19¢ $55 $19 −$36 (-65%)
Huddle FDV above $10M one day after launch? Yes 19¢ 34¢ $10 $17 +$8 (+79%)
Hyperliquid listed on Binance in 2026? Yes 56¢ 20¢ $28 $10 −$18 (-64%)
Reya FDV above $200M one day after launch? Yes 54¢ 20¢ $25 $9 −$16 (-64%)
Will Nansen launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 64¢ 20¢ $29 $9 −$20 (-70%)
Hyperbeat FDV above $50M one day after launch? Yes 38¢ 18¢ $19 $9 −$10 (-54%)
Will Rabby launch a token by September 30, 2026? Yes 35¢ 13¢ $18 $6 −$11 (-63%)
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 40¢ 57¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+44%)
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 June 15-21? Yes 17¢ 12¢ $8 $6 −$3 (-32%)
Will Perena launch a token by June 30, 2026? Yes 58¢ 18¢ $14 $4 −$10 (-70%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 15-21? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+9%)
Pacifica FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes 40¢ 15¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-63%)
Will Nansen launch a token by September 30, 2026? Yes 24¢ 14¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-42%)
Probable FDV above $50M one day after launch? Yes 10¢ 14¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+40%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 15-21? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+40%)
100m views on a MrBeast video in the first week by June 30? No 77¢ 98¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+28%)
Will Fomo launch a token by June 30 2026? Yes 19¢ 4¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-79%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Bitmine announce that it holds more than 9M ETH before 2027? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? Yes 6¢ 7¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+16%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Will Pump.fun reach $0.0080 by December 31, 2026? Yes 19¢ 11¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-42%)
Will Loopscale launch a token by June 30, 2026? Yes 44¢ 3¢ $11 $1 −$10 (-92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 420 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? Jun 16 $110 −$52 -47%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 15? Jun 15 $4 −$3 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +18%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$3 -30%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? Jun 14 $35 −$19 -54%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 13 $30 −$6 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$5 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$5 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$2 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 12 $1 +$7 +695%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$2 -16%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? Jun 12 $22 −$15 -66%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $4 −$3 -65%
Bitcoin above 62,400 on June 11, 2PM ET? Jun 11 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin above 62,600 on June 11, 1PM ET? Jun 11 $10 −$5 -46%
Bitcoin above 62,800 on June 11, 12PM ET? Jun 11 $10 +$13 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$3 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$3 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 11 $100 −$50 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$9 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$3 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 10 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$7 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 10 $11 −$6 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$3 -28%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? Jun 09 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 9-15? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Solana dip to $60 on June 9? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $14 +$58 +429%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 09 $10 −$3 -31%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 9? Jun 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 09 $10 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 09 $10 −$5 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 09 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 09 $10 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 09 $10 +$2 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 15-21? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 15-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 15-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 3h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 15-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 4h
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 June 15-21? BUY Yes 17¢ $8 4h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY Yes 26¢ $122 6h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY Yes 26¢ $8 6h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 16h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? SELL Yes 11¢ $25 26h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? SELL Yes 13¢ $33 26h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? BUY Yes 22¢ $110 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? SELL Yes 47¢ $219 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? SELL Yes 49¢ $7 2d
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 15? SELL No 3¢ $0 2d
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 15? SELL No 3¢ $0 2d
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 15? SELL No 3¢ $0 2d
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 15? SELL No 3¢ $1 2d
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 15? SELL No 3¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $6 2d
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 15? BUY No 9¢ $0 2d
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 15? BUY No 9¢ $2 2d
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 15? BUY No 9¢ $1 2d
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 15? BUY No 9¢ $2 2d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Up 11¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $246.77 · official $246.77 (match) · 2839 history records