Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T18:11:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

BC
0xbcc2…8c9a
other · 144 markets active 0h ago
1.0score
+$4,324 +23%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$405 · open −$29
avoidriskycopy
✓ COPY-WORTHY Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$888
Realized+$405
Unrealized−$29
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses23 / 5
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions226
Markets (closed)28 / 144
History coverage4d
Avg bet$131
Trades / day753.7
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit69%
Chart Positions 226 History 28 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$314
7 days+$405
14 days+$405
30 days+$405
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? No 90¢ 92¢ $45 $47 +$1 (+3%)
Will Radu Burnete be the next Prime Minister of Romania? No 86¢ 88¢ $22 $23 +$0 (+2%)
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL? No 90¢ 90¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30? No 88¢ 95¢ $18 $19 +$1 (+8%)
Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania? No 79¢ 81¢ $19 $19 +$0 (+3%)
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit? Yes 88¢ 89¢ $18 $19 +$0 (+1%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Yes 71¢ 71¢ $19 $19 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Democratic Party win the LA-06 House seat? No 83¢ 90¢ $17 $18 +$1 (+8%)
Will OpenAI announce a computer (Laptop/Desktop) in 2026? No 88¢ 88¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-1%)
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam? No 64¢ 66¢ $16 $16 +$1 (+4%)
Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes 61¢ 49¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-19%)
Will Jared Hudson be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? No 80¢ 78¢ $16 $16 −$1 (-3%)
Will Susie Wiles leave the Trump administration before 2027? No 63¢ 65¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+3%)
WHOOP IPO before 2027? No 76¢ 64¢ $18 $15 −$3 (-16%)
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30? No 70¢ 61¢ $16 $14 −$2 (-13%)
Will John Ratcliffe leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes 43¢ 38¢ $15 $14 −$2 (-12%)
Discord IPO before 2027? Yes 65¢ 66¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+0%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? Yes 72¢ 74¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+3%)
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Yes 37¢ 34¢ $14 $13 −$1 (-9%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Yes 83¢ 77¢ $13 $12 −$1 (-7%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? No 66¢ 61¢ $13 $12 −$1 (-7%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 65¢ 61¢ $13 $12 −$1 (-7%)
Stripe IPO before 2027? No 90¢ 90¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-0%)
Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? No 60¢ 59¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-2%)
Rippling IPO before 2027? No 83¢ 83¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $0 +$71 +335726%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $1 −$106 -20516%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $0 −$25 -197461%
GPT-5.6 released by June 8, 2026? Jun 12 $0 +$103 +187455%
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $2 +$8 +352%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 12 $0 +$42 +56166%
Will Karoline Leavitt leave the Trump administration before 2027? Jun 12 $23 +$5 +20%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? Jun 12 $220 +$157 +72%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 12 $543 +$26 +5%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? Jun 11 $25 +$3 +11%
Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $27 +$1 +4%
Will Cătălin Predoiu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 11 $1 +$19 +3233%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31? Jun 11 $5 +$9 +169%
Will Ilie Bolojan be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 11 $10 $0 +2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $38 +$2 +4%
Will Victor Ponta be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 10 $33 +$1 +2%
Will annual inflation be 4.1% in May? Jun 10 $149 +$7 +5%
Will Dragoș Pîslaru be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 10 $20 $0 +1%
Will annual inflation be 4.3% in May? Jun 10 $54 +$22 +41%
Will annual inflation be 4.4% or more in May? Jun 10 $153 +$91 +59%
Will annual inflation be 4.2% in May? Jun 10 $40 −$8 -20%
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 09 $21 +$1 +3%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $37 +$2 +4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June? Jun 09 $56 +$17 +31%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $173 −$98 -57%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $351 −$111 -32%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $51 +$72 +140%
Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026? Jun 09 $1 +$96 +12031%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 55% +$3
politics 15% +$206
other 15% −$66
sports 8% +$112
tech 6% +$8
finance 1% +$20
culture 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 71¢ $9 1m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 71¢ $9 1m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 29¢ $3 1m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY No 17¢ $0 1m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY No 17¢ $0 1m
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last E BUY Yes 58¢ $4 6m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 81¢ $11 7m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 69¢ $7 7m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY No 18¢ $2 7m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY No 18¢ $1 7m
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 56¢ $6 10m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 49¢ $11 11m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 29¢ $4 13m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 15m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 15m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 85¢ $9 15m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 15m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 71¢ $12 16m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 16m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 16m
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 77¢ $12 16m
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 22¢ $2 17m
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 22¢ $1 17m
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 78¢ $10 19m
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? BUY No 84¢ $8 20m
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? BUY No 87¢ $9 20m
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? BUY No 90¢ $9 20m
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? BUY No 93¢ $19 20m
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 55¢ $1 20m
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 75¢ $2 23m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)+703.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +788.5% +703.9% 82% 54% +17.2%
≤30d 28 +788.5% +703.9% 82% 54% +17.2%
≤90d 28 +788.5% +703.9% 82% 54% +17.2%
all 28 +788.5% +703.9% 82% 54% +17.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover753.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +703.9% 54% +17.2%
10% ← realistic here +627.0% 46% +6.0%
15% +556.7% 46% -4.3%
20% +492.3% 46% -13.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $887.69 · official $823.17 · 3500 history records