Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:24:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BC 0xbcc3…4fbe other 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 398d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +43% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +30% what you keep after slip
Net edge+30%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate27%6W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 68% +$1
other 24% −$3
politics 6% +$1
crypto 1% $0
tech 0% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)+29.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.0% -9.5% 29% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 8 +149.6% +125.8% 38% 12% -9.3%
≤90d 8 +149.6% +125.8% 38% 12% -9.3%
all 22 +43.1% +29.5% 27% 5% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +29.5% 5% -9.9%
10% +17.1% 5% -18.6%
15% +5.8% 5% -26.4%
20% -4.6% 5% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 61% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +43% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late +106% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

398d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses6 / 16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)22 / 23
History coverage398d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $43 $43 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $44 $0 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $44 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $16 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $64 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $45 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $72 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $38 +$1 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 11 $43 +$1 +2%
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $2 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on August 15 Jul 15 $7 −$2 -28%
Will federal spending decrease by less than $250b between Q4 2024 and Jun 24 $18 $0 +1%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 15 $7 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 11 $6 $0 -1%
Will Mikie Sherrill win the 2025 Democratic Primary for governor of Ne Jun 10 $7 $0 -4%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 09 $6 $0 -0%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Minnesota Vikings? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sam Altman buy TikTok? Jun 07 $1 $0 +6%
Will Ali Khamenei be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 07 $5 $0 -10%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elec Jun 05 $23 +$1 +4%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in May? Jun 02 $0 $0 -100%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 World Series? May 31 $2 $0 -15%
Will Derrick White Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? May 16 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $43 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $43 5h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $44 7h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $44 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $44 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 30¢ $5 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 30¢ $8 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 30¢ $3 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 30¢ $16 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $44 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $44 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $5 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $14 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $20 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 44¢ $45 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 44¢ $45 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $28 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $28 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $7 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $32 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $18 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $20 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $44 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $44 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 65¢ $32 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 63¢ $13 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 63¢ $43 7d
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1 183d
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on August 15 SELL Yes 11¢ $0 338d
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1 338d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.31 · official $43.31 (match) · 78 history records