Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:45:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
BC 0xbcc3…6571 other 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 472d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate58%21W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% +$2
other 24% +$4
sports 12% +$1
politics 10% +$1
weather 4% $0
crypto 3% −$5
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.6% -9.0% 25% 0% -7.9%
≤30d 9 -0.1% -9.7% 33% 0% -8.9%
≤90d 9 -0.1% -9.7% 33% 0% -8.9%
all 36 +1.8% -7.9% 58% 8% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 8% -9.0%
10% -16.7% 3% -17.7%
15% -24.8% 3% -25.7%
20% -32.2% 3% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 56% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.58 per $1 lost it wins $1.58
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

472d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses21 / 15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage472d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 95¢ 96¢ $31 $32 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $71 +$3 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 18 $30 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $35 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $10 $0 -1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $39 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 01 $2 $0 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $23 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 30 $34 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 29 $36 −$1 -2%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Dec 09 $1 $0 +11%
Will Elon Musk unfollow Donald Trump before July? Dec 09 $2 $0 +3%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? Jun 01 $1 $0 +1%
Will Anders Arborelius be the next pope? May 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 06 $2 $0 +2%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Apr 04 $16 $0 -1%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian Presidential election by 10% or Apr 03 $16 $0 +0%
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Apr 01 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Apr 01 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Giants draft Abdul Carter? Mar 31 $16 $0 +0%
Is Markiplier engaged? Mar 31 $16 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. recognize Syrian government by March 31? Mar 30 $15 $0 +1%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in March? Mar 29 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Environmental Protection Agency be most efficient on March 31 Mar 29 $15 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 66°F or higher on March 26? Mar 28 $15 $0 +2%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 25 $15 $0 +0%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Mar 25 $1 +$1 +96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 61°F or higher on March 24? Mar 24 $13 $0 +1%
Wofford vs. Tennessee Mar 22 $11 +$1 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $77000 on Mar 21? Mar 21 $6 −$5 -84%
Fact Check: Did the U.S. hit Iranian spy ship? Mar 19 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 18 $16 +$3 +16%
Will Trump say 'term limit' during the 2025 State of the Union? Mar 06 $14 +$1 +6%
Bowling Green vs. Northern Illinois Mar 04 $14 $0 +2%
Xavier vs. Butler Mar 04 $20 $0 +0%
UL Monroe vs. Louisiana Mar 04 $14 $0 -1%
Lehigh vs. Loyola Maryland Mar 04 $14 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $31 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 86¢ $6 8h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 86¢ $32 8h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 81¢ $36 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 38¢ $30 25h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $30 27h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 84¢ $35 29h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 84¢ $27 32h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 84¢ $8 32h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $10 34h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $10 36h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 70¢ $15 44h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 70¢ $7 44h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 70¢ $13 44h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $35 46h
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $39 16d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $39 16d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 17d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 17d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $23 19d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $23 20d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $3 20d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $31 20d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $34 20d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 58¢ $35 21d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $36 21d
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? BUY No 90¢ $1 354d
Will Elon Musk unfollow Donald Trump before July? BUY No 97¢ $2 368d
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? BUY No 99¢ $1 394d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.58 · official $31.58 (match) · 99 history records