Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:16:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
BC 0xbcc6…2136 sports 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$810 (+15%) realized +$819 · open −$9
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%22W / 18L
Drawdown51%max
Avg bet$126per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Fees−$74est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$162
7 days+$265
14 days+$751
30 days+$751
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% +$348
other 17% +$399
culture 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)+0.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -1.4% -10.8% 50% 50% +0.2%
≤30d 40 +10.7% +0.2% 55% 55% +3.3%
≤90d 40 +10.7% +0.2% 55% 55% +3.3%
all 40 +10.7% +0.2% 55% 55% +3.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.2% 55% +3.3%
10% -9.4% 55% -6.6%
15% -18.2% 52% -15.6%
20% -26.2% 42% -23.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +30% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$96 vs −$75 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.56 per $1 lost it wins $1.56
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized+$819
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses22 / 18
Est. fees paid−$74
Open positions2
Markets (closed)40 / 43
History coverage14d
Avg bet$126
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? Yes $10 $1 −$9 (-86%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $101 +$65 +65%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $102 −$6 -6%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 25 $76 −$75 -98%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $51 +$51 +101%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 24 $303 +$126 +42%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 24 $204 −$126 -62%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $404 +$230 +57%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 22 $102 −$100 -98%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $162 −$160 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $162 −$7 -4%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $101 +$63 +62%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 20 $701 +$203 +29%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 19 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $102 +$107 +105%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $51 −$8 -17%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $254 +$107 +42%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $127 −$125 -99%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 17 $51 +$60 +118%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 17 $101 +$55 +54%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $99 +$59 +59%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $71 +$72 +101%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $138 +$172 +124%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 +$72 +234%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $247 +$188 +76%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $151 −$148 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $101 −$101 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $122 −$120 -99%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $51 +$84 +165%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $101 −$52 -51%
Will Oscar Piastri get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Pr Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $101 +$67 +66%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$55 +54%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $51 −$19 -37%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $51 +$54 +107%
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 13 $111 +$41 +37%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $202 +$119 +59%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $111 +$52 +47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $51 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes $10 6h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 60¢ $101 21h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 40¢ $96 21h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $102 21h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 35¢ $76 25h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $51 44h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) SELL Morocco 93¢ $210 44h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) SELL Morocco 93¢ $54 44h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) SELL Morocco 93¢ $96 44h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) SELL Morocco 93¢ $69 44h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 65¢ $303 2d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) SELL Colombia 14¢ $78 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 63¢ $404 3d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 35¢ $204 3d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 22¢ $102 3d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $162 4d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 61¢ $155 5d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $162 6d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $164 6d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 61¢ $101 6d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) SELL Brazil 95¢ $904 6d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 73¢ $701 6d
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY United States 54¢ $101 7d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $208 7d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 1.5 SELL Over 38¢ $42 7d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 1.5 BUY Over 44¢ $51 7d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $102 7d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 7d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) SELL Colombia 100¢ $208 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.76 · official $50.76 (match) · 87 history records