Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T15:56:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

BC 0xbcc7…7836 other 25 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d

TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$176 (+6%) realized +$181 · open −$5

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip

Net edge-16%after slip

Net WR65%break-even

Win rate70%16W / 7L

Drawdown90%max

Avg bet$117per market

Trades / day4.3pace

Kalshi-fit4%portable

Net worth$336now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +65%

net ROI/market (all)-12.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	23	-2.9%	-12.1%	70%	65%	-4.2%
≤30d	23	-2.9%	-12.1%	70%	65%	-4.2%
≤90d	23	-2.9%	-12.1%	70%	65%	-4.2%
all	23	-2.9%	-12.1%	70%	65%	-4.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.3 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-12.1%	65%	-4.2%
10%	-20.5%	43%	-13.3%
15%	-28.2%	35%	-21.7%
20%	-35.2%	17%	-29.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 16% · top 2 29% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

6% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -3% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +10% → late -15% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$45 vs −$82 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.26 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage

Net worth$336

Realized+$181

Unrealized−$5

Win rate (resolved)70%

Wins / losses16 / 7

Open positions2

Markets (closed)23 / 25

History coverage6d

Avg bet$117

Trades / day4.3

Drawdown90%

Kalshi-fit4%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 23 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	58¢	57¢	$241	$239	−$2 (-1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	Yes	59¢	57¢	$100	$97	−$3 (-3%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 28	$100	+$16	+16%
Will England win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 27	$100	+$16	+16%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 27	$102	−$100	-98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 27	$101	+$21	+21%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 27	$314	+$79	+25%
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 26	$222	+$92	+42%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$102	−$100	-98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$50	+$5	+11%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$50	+$10	+20%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$51	−$50	-98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$101	−$100	-99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$51	+$37	+73%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$202	+$69	+34%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$51	−$50	-99%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 24	$101	+$40	+40%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 24	$101	+$58	+57%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 24	$101	+$46	+46%
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$101	−$100	-100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$101	+$53	+52%
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$144	+$14	+10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$101	+$50	+50%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 22	$125	+$120	+96%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 22	$102	−$74	-73%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	58¢	$244	1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	BUY Yes	59¢	$101	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	86¢	$100	21h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	48¢	$102	21h
Will England win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	86¢	$100	21h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	82¢	$101	38h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	SELL Yes	74¢	$393	38h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	58¢	$314	40h
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	70¢	$222	46h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	49¢	$102	2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	90¢	$50	2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	51¢	$51	2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	83¢	$50	2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	62¢	$101	2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	57¢	$51	3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	59¢	$51	3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	71¢	$101	4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	74¢	$202	4d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	63¢	$101	4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	68¢	$101	4d
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	82¢	$101	4d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	65¢	$101	5d
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	91¢	$144	6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	66¢	$101	6d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	84¢	$245	6d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	42¢	$125	6d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	14¢	$27	6d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	50¢	$102	6d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $336.02 · official $336.02 (match) · 42 history records