Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T12:26:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BC 0xbccc…4f87 world 46 markets active 1h ago coverage 289d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate27%12W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% +$3
other 26% $0
sports 13% $0
politics 12% −$2
economics 5% $0
culture 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.3% -9.8% 50% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 11 +0.5% -9.0% 45% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 12 +0.5% -9.1% 50% 0% -9.0%
all 44 -2.3% -11.6% 27% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 0% -9.4%
10% -20.0% 0% -18.1%
15% -27.8% 0% -26.0%
20% -34.8% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 77% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

289d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses12 / 32
Open positions2
Markets (closed)44 / 46
History coverage289d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? No 95¢ 97¢ $48 $48 +$1 (+1%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes 8¢ 2¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-72%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 24 $59 +$2 +3%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $81 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 23 $43 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $32 −$3 -10%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 21 $16 +$1 +4%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $45 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $49 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $55 $0 +0%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 27 $45 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 26 $16 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 25 $39 +$3 +8%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 25 $2 $0 +0%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Nov 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 25 $30 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Sep 24 $30 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 World Series? Sep 24 $30 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 24 $30 $0 +0%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Sep 23 $29 $0 +1%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 23 $31 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 22 $2 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Sep 22 $21 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 22 $10 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 22 $31 $0 +0%
Will Galatasaray win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 21 $31 $0 -0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in China? Sep 21 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Sep 21 $4 $0 +1%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 21 $2 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Sep 19 $30 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Sep 19 $31 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 18 $23 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Sep 17 $8 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 17 $26 $0 +0%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by September 30? Sep 17 $6 $0 -0%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30? Sep 17 $28 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 17 $3 $0 -9%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 16 $31 $0 +0%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Sep 16 $31 $0 +0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 15 $31 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 15 $31 $0 -0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 15? Sep 14 $31 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 13 $31 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 13 $31 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 08 $30 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $48 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $37 8h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $6 8h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $18 11h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $26 11h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $38 15h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $38 19h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $37 22h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $6 22h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $43 26h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $13 31h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $31 31h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $43 32h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 18¢ $7 34h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 18¢ $7 34h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 18¢ $15 34h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $32 36h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 25¢ $17 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 24¢ $14 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 17¢ $10 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 17¢ $4 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $12 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 8¢ $7 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $24 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $20 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $45 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.29 · official $48.27 (match) · 144 history records