Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:11:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BC 0xbccd…f31f crypto 273 markets active 6d ago coverage 129d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$55 (-2%) realized −$56 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate73%198W / 74L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$19
14 days−$32
30 days−$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 55% −$20
politics 18% −$1
sports 11% −$36
other 10% −$2
world 6% $0
economics 1% −$1
culture 0% +$1
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -68.6% -71.6% 20% 20% -73.5%
≤30d 42 -16.1% -24.1% 74% 17% -15.8%
≤90d 195 -4.1% -13.3% 83% 4% -11.1%
all 272 -3.4% -12.6% 73% 3% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 3% -11.0%
10% -21.0% 2% -19.5%
15% -28.6% 1% -27.3%
20% -35.6% 1% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

129d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$56
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses198 / 74
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)272 / 273
History coverage129d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 272 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 83¢ 96¢ $6 $6 +$1 (+16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Spurs (-13.5) Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $5 +$3 +57%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 11 $7 −$7 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 217.5 Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $3 −$3 -97%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $8 +$4 +55%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $6 +$1 +17%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $5 $0 +7%
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) Jun 09 $6 −$6 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 07 $8 −$3 -32%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 06 $8 +$6 +76%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 06 $5 +$1 +13%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 211.5 Jun 06 $9 −$9 -100%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 165.5 Jun 05 $15 +$10 +65%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 05 $9 −$9 -99%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 10.5 Jun 04 $5 +$2 +31%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5 Jun 04 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12PM ET Jun 02 $13 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6PM ET Jun 02 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5PM ET Jun 01 $14 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10PM ET Jun 01 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6AM ET Jun 01 $15 $0 +1%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $6 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? Jun 01 $10 $0 +1%
Will Club Alianza Atlético win on 2026-05-28? Jun 01 $15 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5PM ET May 29 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4PM ET May 29 $17 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12PM ET May 27 $19 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11PM ET May 27 $12 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9PM ET May 27 $17 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6PM ET May 23 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10PM ET May 21 $11 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7AM ET May 20 $12 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10PM ET May 20 $16 $0 +0%
Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 5.5 May 20 $7 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6PM ET May 20 $11 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7AM ET May 19 $17 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3AM ET May 19 $13 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7AM ET May 18 $8 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3AM ET May 18 $11 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11PM ET May 18 $11 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9PM ET May 18 $12 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5PM ET May 18 $13 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11PM ET May 17 $17 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5AM ET May 16 $15 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2PM ET May 15 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1PM ET May 15 $7 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Spurs (-13.5) BUY Spurs 57¢ $5 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 84¢ $5 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 BUY Over 60¢ $7 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 217.5 BUY Over 60¢ $5 6d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets BUY St. Louis Cardinals 63¢ $5 6d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 7¢ $3 7d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 15¢ $2 7d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 85¢ $6 7d
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 64¢ $8 7d
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? SELL No 71¢ $5 7d
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) BUY Knicks 59¢ $6 8d
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Spurs 51¢ $5 8d
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $5 9d
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Kansas City Royals 89¢ $5 9d
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Minnesota Twins 49¢ $3 9d
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Seattle Mariners 56¢ $8 10d
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) BUY Knicks 88¢ $5 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 211.5 BUY Over 65¢ $9 11d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 70¢ $9 12d
Golden State Valkyries vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 165.5 BUY Over 60¢ $5 12d
Golden State Valkyries vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 165.5 BUY Over 60¢ $5 12d
Golden State Valkyries vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 165.5 BUY Over 60¢ $5 12d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 76¢ $5 13d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 95¢ $10 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $13 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $10 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $14 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $5 16d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $10 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.46 · official $6.46 (match) · 1070 history records