Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:07:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BC 0xbccf…e4af sports 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$26 (-13%) realized −$2 · open −$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%5W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$40
14 days−$27
30 days−$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% −$58
other 24% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -39.9% -45.6% 33% 33% -35.3%
≤30d 10 -7.3% -16.1% 50% 50% -24.3%
≤90d 10 -7.3% -16.1% 50% 50% -24.3%
all 10 -7.3% -16.1% 50% 50% -24.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.1% 50% -24.3%
10% -24.1% 50% -31.5%
15% -31.5% 50% -38.1%
20% -38.2% 50% -44.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 74% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$18 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$2
Unrealized−$24
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses5 / 5
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage10d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Under 49¢ 10¢ $30 $6 −$24 (-80%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 17 $11 −$11 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $23 −$23 -98%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $30 +$20 +67%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $26 +$24 +93%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 +$3 +134%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $8 +$6 +73%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $12 +$7 +59%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 49¢ $30 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 3d
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY England 14¢ $11 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $23 4d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 59¢ $30 5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $26 6d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 61¢ $30 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 42¢ $2 8d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 60¢ $3 8d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score SELL No 100¢ $19 9d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY No 62¢ $12 9d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $8 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.91 · official $5.91 (match) · 16 history records