Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T19:06:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
BC 0xbcd0…c6fc other 116 markets active 2h ago coverage 121d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate11%13W / 101L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$182per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$11
politics 40% −$11
sports 5% +$13
crypto 3% −$1
economics 2% −$1
culture 1% $0
world 1% $0
finance 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 10 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 88 +3.6% -6.3% 7% 5% -9.4%
all 114 -0.6% -10.0% 11% 7% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 7% -9.6%
10% -18.6% 5% -18.2%
15% -26.5% 3% -26.1%
20% -33.7% 3% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$1 · ×7.08 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

121d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses13 / 101
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)114 / 116
History coverage121d
Avg bet$182
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 114 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? No 99¢ 100¢ $28 $28 +$0 (+0%)
Will Solana reach $160 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $22 $22 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 27 $27 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 27 $25 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $204 $0 -0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 12 $33 $0 -0%
Will James Cleverly be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom i Jun 08 $34 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $323 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $25 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $363 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $33 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $434 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $358 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $182 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $296 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $360 −$1 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $547 −$1 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $187 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 19 $169 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $214 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 17 $396 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $200 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 13 $179 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $216 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $172 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 11 $180 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $336 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $332 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $473 −$1 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April? May 05 $36 $0 +0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 03 $132 $0 -0%
Will Frances Tiafoe win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 03 $153 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $146 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $502 −$1 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $314 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $186 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $280 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $347 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 27 $370 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 26 $212 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $187 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 24 $194 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 21 $29 $0 -1%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 21 $339 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 20 $168 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $165 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $175 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $332 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $139 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $184 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Apr 16 $196 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $304 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $27 1h
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $27 10h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $25 10h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $28 4d
Will Solana reach $160 in June? BUY No 100¢ $22 4d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $25 6d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $30 7d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $30 13d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $33 15d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $33 17d
Will James Cleverly be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom i SELL No 100¢ $34 19d
Will James Cleverly be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom i BUY No 100¢ $34 20d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $24 21d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $24 22d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $25 25d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $25 26d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $26 26d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $26 27d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $33 27d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $33 27d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $32 27d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $32 27d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $194 30d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $194 30d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $182 30d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $182 31d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $153 32d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $153 32d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $164 32d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $164 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.10 · official $50.10 (match) · 372 history records