Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:44:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BC 0xbcd1…80be sports 142 markets active 1h ago coverage 46d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$53 (+10%) realized +$55 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate39%54W / 85L
Drawdown59%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day9.2pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days−$21
14 days−$16
30 days+$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% +$42
other 10% −$14
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -39.8% -45.5% 25% 25% -40.8%
≤30d 102 +5.0% -5.0% 42% 41% -0.8%
≤90d 139 -5.9% -14.9% 39% 37% -2.1%
all 139 -5.9% -14.9% 39% 37% -2.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 37% -2.1%
10% -23.0% 35% -11.4%
15% -30.5% 33% -20.0%
20% -37.3% 29% -27.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$2 · ×1.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$55
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses54 / 85
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions3
Markets (closed)139 / 142
History coverage46d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day9.2
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 139 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn Karen Khachanov 71¢ 16¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-78%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 77 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Royan: Max Alcala Gurri vs Andres Santamarta Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Poznan: Hynek Barton vs Kimmer Coppejans Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $3 −$2 -58%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +57%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +32%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $5 −$1 -19%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $2 +$1 +50%
Will Bo Nickal win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +172%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $3 +$2 +57%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $4 −$4 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $2 +$7 +321%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $3 +$5 +172%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Sri Lanka Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Stuttgart Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 09 $4 −$4 -97%
HSBC Championships: Laura Siegemund vs Francesca Jones Jun 09 $3 −$3 -97%
Ilkley: Harry Wendelken vs Jack Pinnington Jones Jun 08 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $5 +$3 +62%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $5 −$1 -15%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $5 $0 +1%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $3 +$5 +168%
Will Matteo Arnaldi win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $8 −$2 -30%
Perugia: Luca Nardi vs Oriol Roca Batalla Jun 02 $7 +$3 +45%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -96%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $1 −$1 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca May 31 $1 −$1 -98%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 31 $15 −$8 -54%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Raphael Collignon May 30 $5 +$4 +71%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Tommy Paul May 29 $32 +$2 +5%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $18 −$16 -88%
Vicenza: Yu-Hsiou Hsu vs Jacopo Vasami May 29 $6 −$6 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Luca Van Assche vs Brandon Nakashima May 28 $1 $0 +30%
Roland Garros WTA: Daria Kasatkina vs Susan Bandecchi May 28 $7 +$2 +29%
Roland Garros ATP: Martin Landaluce vs Vit Kopriva May 28 $2 +$2 +100%
Roland Garros ATP: Facundo Acosta vs Learner Tien May 28 $18 +$17 +93%
Chisinau: Cezar Cretu vs Pavel Kotov May 28 $1 +$3 +276%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Yibing Wu May 28 $8 −$5 -59%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn BUY Karen Khachanov 71¢ $3 34m
Royan: Max Alcala Gurri vs Andres Santamarta BUY Andres Santamarta 12¢ $1 1h
Poznan: Hynek Barton vs Kimmer Coppejans BUY Kimmer Coppejans 23¢ $1 1h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 7h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $3 7h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $3 7h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $4 7h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 19h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $1 19h
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Under 32¢ $1 19h
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 34¢ $3 20h
Will Bo Nickal win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 34h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 40h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 40h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 30¢ $2 40h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 16¢ $1 40h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 57¢ $1 40h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 66¢ $2 40h
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 63¢ $3 40h
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $2 40h
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $2 40h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 21¢ $1 40h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 42h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $2 42h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $2 42h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 23¢ $1 42h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 20¢ $1 42h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $3 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka $1 3d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.66 · official $2.66 (match) · 448 history records