Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T05:15:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BC 0xbcd3…dbbb world 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 467d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-1%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate42%16W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 64% +$7
other 19% −$12
crypto 6% $0
sports 6% $0
weather 2% $0
economics 2% $0
tech 1% $0
politics 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.4% -9.1% 33% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 13 +0.8% -8.8% 38% 0% -8.3%
≤90d 13 +0.8% -8.8% 38% 0% -8.3%
all 38 +1.3% -8.4% 42% 3% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 3% -10.0%
10% -17.2% 3% -18.6%
15% -25.2% 3% -26.5%
20% -32.5% 3% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 66% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

467d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses16 / 22
Open positions2
Markets (closed)38 / 40
History coverage467d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 92¢ 93¢ $50 $50 +$1 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 71¢ 48¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 19 $7 +$1 +9%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $16 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $14 −$1 -7%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $25 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $46 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $47 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 26 $51 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 26 $90 +$1 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 25 $92 +$7 +8%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $72 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 24 $39 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 23 $43 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 14 $2 $0 +1%
Will Nicușor Dan win by 6–12%? May 22 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest finish in the top 4 of EPL? May 13 $15 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? May 12 $15 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 11 $15 $0 -0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? May 10 $14 $0 +0%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal minority? May 10 $3 $0 +8%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? May 10 $12 −$1 -5%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2025? May 10 $12 $0 -0%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 May 09 $1 $0 +8%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec May 09 $17 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in May? May 09 $15 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? May 08 $14 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? May 08 $15 $0 -0%
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Quebec in the next C May 07 $2 $0 +4%
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 07 $14 +$1 +7%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500.00 by March 31? Mar 28 $1 +$1 +115%
Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 21-28? Mar 26 $14 $0 +0%
Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 23 $28 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 54°F or below on March 22? Mar 23 $15 $0 +1%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2025? Mar 20 $1 $0 -9%
Will Jerome Powell say "Tariff" during the March meeting? Mar 17 $15 $0 -0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 16 $15 $0 -0%
China wins the most gold medals in 2025 Special Olympics? Mar 16 $13 +$1 +4%
Will Elon tweet 625-649 times March 7-14? Mar 15 $13 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 92¢ $50 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 24¢ $7 9h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 22¢ $7 11h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 19h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 27h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 27h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 66¢ $16 32h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 66¢ $16 32h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 28¢ $4 42h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 28¢ $9 42h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 30¢ $14 44h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $25 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $25 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $32 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $14 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $30 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $16 2d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 24d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 24d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $50 24d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $51 24d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $18 24d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $27 25d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $14 25d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $8 25d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $23 25d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $45 25d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $45 25d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 66¢ $50 25d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 65¢ $49 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.36 · official $50.22 (match) · 132 history records