Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:02:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BC 0xbcd3…453c sports 50 markets active 24h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$177 (-21%) realized −$177 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%16W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days−$352
14 days−$352
30 days−$186
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% −$89
other 26% −$97
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-33.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -69.5% -72.4% 8% 8% -79.9%
≤30d 50 -26.6% -33.6% 32% 32% -29.3%
≤90d 50 -26.6% -33.6% 32% 32% -29.3%
all 50 -26.6% -33.6% 32% 32% -29.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.6% 32% -29.3%
10% -40.0% 26% -36.1%
15% -45.8% 26% -42.2%
20% -51.1% 22% -47.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -69% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$14 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$177
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses16 / 34
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)50 / 50
History coverage18d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 50 Trades
no open positions (17 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +105%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 13 $10 −$8 -82%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $18 −$18 -98%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 204.5 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Atlanta Dream vs. PortlandFire Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 12 $55 −$55 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 12 $50 −$36 -71%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Washington Mystics Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros Jun 12 $58 −$54 -94%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $12 −$12 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? Jun 12 $3 −$1 -47%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $9 $0 -5%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$1 -8%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $15 +$25 +165%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 04 $39 +$16 +42%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 03 $34 +$5 +13%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 03 $25 +$9 +38%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 02 $10 +$15 +146%
Will Brazil win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $20 +$4 +21%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners May 31 $10 −$10 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $60 +$57 +94%
Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 107.5 May 31 $4 −$4 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Victoria Mboko vs Madison Keys May 30 $8 +$9 +106%
Virtus Bologna vs. Reyer Venezia May 30 $30 −$25 -83%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $10 +$23 +226%
Gabriel Jesus: Anytime Goalscorer May 30 $1 −$1 -97%
Bradley Barcola: Anytime Goalscorer May 30 $1 −$1 -98%
Goncalo Ramos: Anytime Goalscorer May 30 $1 −$1 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Camila Osorio May 30 $25 +$4 +14%
Will FC Tōkyō win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $15 +$10 +64%
Nagoya Grampus vs. FC Machida Zelvia: O/U 2.5 May 30 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Cerezo Ōsaka win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $5 −$5 -98%
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies May 30 $35 +$24 +68%
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Ma May 30 $5 −$5 -98%
Atlanta Dream vs. PortlandFire: O/U 162.5 May 30 $4 −$4 -98%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5 May 30 $10 −$10 -99%
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox May 30 $10 +$15 +143%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 30 $11 +$37 +325%
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 30 $10 +$21 +204%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes $5 23h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 23h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 23h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $21 4d
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 85¢ $10 4d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 4d
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes $8 4d
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 4d
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 4d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 76¢ $10 4d
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 4d
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? SELL Yes $0 5d
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? SELL Yes $0 5d
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? SELL Yes $0 5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 5d
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 25¢ $2 5d
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 46¢ $3 5d
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 5d
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 5d
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 5d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 45¢ $9 5d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 24¢ $9 5d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $9 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 5d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $40 5d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 78¢ $55 14d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves SELL Atlanta Braves 100¢ $55 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 106 history records