Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:53:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BC 0xbcd3…1e80 world 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 329d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate21%8W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% −$3
other 29% $0
politics 9% $0
tech 7% $0
economics 6% $0
sports 2% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.2% -9.4% 33% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 15 -0.5% -10.0% 27% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 15 -0.5% -10.0% 27% 0% -10.0%
all 39 -0.2% -9.7% 21% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 77% · top 2 85% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

329d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses8 / 31
Open positions0
Markets (closed)39 / 39
History coverage329d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 39 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 25 $31 $0 -0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 24 $32 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 24 $10 $0 -2%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 24 $18 $0 +2%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $34 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 23 $34 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $31 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 16 $28 $0 -2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $2 $0 +3%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $41 −$7 -16%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $74 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $65 +$4 +6%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 11 $35 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 09 $21 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $37 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 27 $2 $0 +5%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Sep 11 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 09 $5 $0 -1%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 25 $53 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 06 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Aug 06 $9 $0 -1%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 05 $7 $0 +0%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 04 $10 $0 -1%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 04 $6 $0 -3%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Aug 03 $6 $0 +0%
Will 'Avatar: Fire and Ash' have the best domestic opening weekend in Aug 03 $4 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Aug 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 02 $51 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 02 $50 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 02 $55 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Aug 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 31 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 31 $54 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship Jul 31 $60 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $31 40m
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $31 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 33¢ $32 18h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 34¢ $11 20h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 32¢ $18 20h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 20h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 23¢ $9 26h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 28h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 28h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 50¢ $18 33h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 49¢ $18 35h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $34 46h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $34 47h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $32 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $2 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $34 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $31 8d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $31 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 62¢ $27 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 63¢ $28 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 75¢ $34 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 89¢ $41 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $29 12d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $7 12d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $37 12d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $1 12d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $36 12d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $37 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 104 history records