Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:37:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BC 0xbcd5…ac39 world 84 markets active 2h ago coverage 284d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$8 (+0%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate37%31W / 53L
Drawdown75%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$14
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 30% −$22
politics 25% +$7
other 21% +$26
sports 11% −$6
economics 10% +$3
tech 1% $0
culture 1% $0
finance 0% +$1
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +0.2% -9.3% 40% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 24 -0.6% -10.0% 38% 4% -10.3%
≤90d 32 -1.2% -10.6% 44% 3% -9.8%
all 84 +2.4% -7.4% 37% 4% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.4% 4% -9.4%
10% -16.2% 2% -18.1%
15% -24.3% 1% -26.0%
20% -31.7% 1% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 68% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

284d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses31 / 53
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)84 / 84
History coverage284d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown75%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 84 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $47 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $75 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $231 $0 -0%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $82 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $74 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $78 −$4 -5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $184 −$3 -2%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $167 +$1 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $43 +$4 +8%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $62 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 08 $49 −$11 -23%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $6 $0 -2%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 06 $189 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $19 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $23 +$1 +4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma Jun 02 $11 −$1 -5%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 27 $122 −$4 -3%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 25 $4 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $24 +$1 +5%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $77 −$3 -4%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 23 $3 $0 +11%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 22 $100 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 21 $101 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 21 $90 +$2 +2%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 13 $435 +$1 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 24 $619 +$3 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 23 $1,290 +$10 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 22 $65 −$4 -6%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $19 +$1 +3%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $493 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $622 −$10 -2%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 23 $6 −$1 -21%
Will Bianca Censori rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 202 Dec 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Dec 12 $9 +$30 +335%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 06 $7 −$1 -17%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 26 $5 $0 -10%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 26 $13 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $6 $0 +0%
Buccaneers vs. Rams Nov 25 $10 +$3 +35%
Will Wolves win on 2025-11-22? Nov 24 $35 +$1 +3%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 20 $17 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $13 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 19 $39 $0 +0%
Will Brighton win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $13 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-11-22? Nov 18 $21 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Nov 18 $18 $0 -1%
Will LLA hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Oct 24 $19 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $47 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $11 3h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $7 3h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $29 3h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $75 15h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $75 19h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $82 24h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $82 24h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $45 31h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $30 31h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $45 35h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $30 35h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $82 2d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $82 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $74 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $6 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $69 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $75 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $75 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 78¢ $56 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 78¢ $18 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 82¢ $78 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 50¢ $5 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 50¢ $14 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 50¢ $2 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 50¢ $2 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 50¢ $38 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 55¢ $24 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 55¢ $15 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 55¢ $29 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 333 history records