Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:16:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
BC 0xbcd9…6c80 world 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 15d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$120 (-7%) realized −$120 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate44%4W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$179per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$5
14 days−$84
30 days−$121
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 80% +$3
other 12% −$91
crypto 4% +$27
sports 4% −$60
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-25.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +1.3% -8.3% 60% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 9 -18.1% -25.9% 44% 11% -16.4%
≤90d 9 -18.1% -25.9% 44% 11% -16.4%
all 9 -18.1% -25.9% 44% 11% -16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.9% 11% -16.4%
10% -33.0% 11% -24.4%
15% -39.4% 11% -31.7%
20% -45.4% 0% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 84% · top 2 92% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$51 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$120
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses4 / 5
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage15d
Avg bet$179
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30? Jun 24 $328 +$3 +1%
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? Jun 24 $323 $0 +0%
Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK i Jun 23 $36 +$2 +6%
Ukraine election called by August 31, 2026? Jun 23 $322 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by June 30? Jun 23 $316 $0 +0%
Game 2: Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor? Jun 10 $91 −$89 -97%
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by June 30? Jun 10 $58 −$4 -7%
Spread: Thailand (-1.5) Jun 09 $60 −$60 -100%
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027? Jun 09 $71 +$27 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $29 1h
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $302 1h
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $328 2h
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $6 2h
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $318 2h
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $323 5h
Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK i SELL No 35¢ $34 22h
Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK i SELL No 33¢ $4 23h
Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK i BUY No 32¢ $3 23h
Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK i BUY No 32¢ $33 23h
Ukraine election called by August 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $322 25h
Ukraine election called by August 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $322 25h
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $316 27h
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $316 29h
Game 2: Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor? BUY Yes 9¢ $91 13d
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $27 14d
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $26 14d
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 14d
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $29 14d
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $29 14d
Spread: Thailand (-1.5) BUY Thailand 7¢ $30 14d
Spread: Thailand (-1.5) BUY Thailand 7¢ $30 14d
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027? SELL Yes 11¢ $50 14d
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027? SELL Yes 11¢ $48 14d
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $34 15d
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $37 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 27 history records