Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:40:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BC 0xbcda…5e95 sports 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$118 (-4%) realized −$224 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +13% what you keep after slip
Net edge+13%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate34%12W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$91per market
Trades / day12.1pace
Fees−$44est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$159now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% −$58
other 31% −$167
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)+22.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +35.3% +22.4% 34% 34% -16.6%
≤30d 35 +35.3% +22.4% 34% 34% -16.6%
≤90d 35 +35.3% +22.4% 34% 34% -16.6%
all 35 +35.3% +22.4% 34% 34% -16.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +22.4% 34% -16.6%
10% +10.7% 34% -24.6%
15% -0.0% 34% -31.8%
20% -9.8% 26% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +35% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late +84% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$69 vs −$46 · ×1.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$159
Realized−$224
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses12 / 23
Est. fees paid−$44
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage7d
Avg bet$91
Trades / day12.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? No 49¢ 48¢ $160 $159 −$2 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 0¢ $258 $0 −$258 (-100%)
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 South Africa? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $65 $0 −$65 (-100%)
Exact Score: United States 1 - 2 Paraguay? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Gen.G 71¢ 0¢ $109 $0 −$109 (-100%)
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) KT Rolster 51¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Team WE 23¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Team Heretics 42¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 2 Czechia? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $36 $0 −$36 (-100%)
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Dragon Ranger Gaming 34¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 South Africa? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Spurs 64¢ 0¢ $189 $0 −$189 (-100%)
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage FULL SENSE 45¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 14 $288 −$6 -2%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $133 −$40 -30%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $117 +$105 +89%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $111 −$109 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $62 +$49 +79%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $193 −$189 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $264 −$258 -98%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $10 +$6 +56%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $154 +$58 +38%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $21 −$20 -97%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $5 +$94 +1805%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $103 +$46 +44%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -96%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $10 −$2 -23%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $146 +$157 +107%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 12 $79 +$68 +86%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 12 $130 −$96 -74%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $21 −$7 -31%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 2 Czechia? Jun 12 $37 −$36 -96%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $36 −$35 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $77 −$4 -6%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $67 −$65 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $16 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -96%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $62 +$31 +49%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $21 +$62 +302%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $82 −$4 -5%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $138 −$12 -8%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $189 −$66 -35%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $149 +$81 +55%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 09 $51 −$50 -97%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 09 $67 $0 -1%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $63 +$71 +112%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 49¢ $2 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 49¢ $163 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 51¢ $163 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $174 1h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff BUY FUT Esports 60¢ $108 8h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff SELL G2 Esports 38¢ $18 8h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff SELL G2 Esports 39¢ $89 8h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff BUY G2 Esports 62¢ $180 9h
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Team Heretics 37¢ $21 9h
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Team Heretics 48¢ $21 9h
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Heretics 100¢ $222 9h
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Heretics 51¢ $117 10h
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London SELL Leviatán Esports 71¢ $118 10h
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 54¢ $38 11h
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 52¢ $54 11h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 71¢ $111 19h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $111 19h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 54¢ $62 20h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $193 25h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $264 27h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs SELL XLG Gaming 7¢ $3 31h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs BUY XLG Gaming 17¢ $10 33h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play SELL EDward Gaming 44¢ $93 33h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY EDward Gaming 23¢ $52 34h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play SELL FUT Esports 76¢ $119 34h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 63¢ $102 35h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Team WE 23¢ $21 37h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner SELL Gen.G 100¢ $99 40h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner BUY Gen.G 5¢ $5 42h
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) BUY KT Rolster 51¢ $15 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $158.73 · official $158.73 (match) · 87 history records