Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:39:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BC 0xbcdb…a760 other 104 markets active 0h ago coverage 464d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$18 (-0%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate44%45W / 57L
Whale WR14%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$109per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$14
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 76% −$16
other 18% −$2
finance 3% −$3
politics 1% +$1
crypto 1% $0
sports 0% $0
tech 0% $0
weather 0% $0
economics 0% $0
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +5.2% -4.8% 71% 14% -9.3%
≤30d 25 +1.5% -8.2% 48% 4% -9.8%
≤90d 31 +1.1% -8.5% 39% 3% -9.7%
all 102 +0.1% -9.4% 44% 1% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 1% -9.7%
10% -18.1% 1% -18.3%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 14% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

464d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses45 / 57
Whale WR (big bets)14%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)102 / 104
History coverage464d
Avg bet$109
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 102 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 66¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+51%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 47¢ 56¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 17 $37 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $243 +$1 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $166 −$1 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $183 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $4 $0 +9%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $147 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $182 +$2 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $369 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $164 +$2 +1%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 08 $38 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $223 +$3 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $566 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 06 $168 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $148 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $387 −$4 -1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $170 +$11 +6%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 04 $283 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $928 −$22 -2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 02 $1,229 −$2 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $17 −$1 -3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $102 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 25 $167 −$3 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 25 $149 +$2 +2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 24 $46 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 21 $173 −$5 -3%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 15 $902 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 14 $150 −$2 -1%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 14 $905 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 13 $37 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 11 $927 −$1 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 11 $1,020 $0 +0%
Will Mistral have a #1 AI model this year? Dec 29 $23 $0 +1%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 17 $12 $0 +1%
Will Girona FC win on 2025-12-21? Dec 16 $28 $0 +0%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2025-12-20? Dec 16 $6 $0 +0%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 15 $6 $0 +0%
Will Real Oviedo win on 2025-12-20? Dec 15 $6 $0 +0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 12 $5 −$1 -22%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Dec 12 $13 −$3 -24%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $2 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $9 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 25 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 11 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Sep 11 $21 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Sep 11 $17 $0 +1%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 10 $23 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 10 $19 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 10 $1 $0 +2%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 10 $12 $0 -0%
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election Sep 10 $9 $0 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $15 6m
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $22 6m
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $37 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $183 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $182 3h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $165 22h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $166 22h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $183 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $183 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $4 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $21 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $51 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $71 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $147 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $80 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $80 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 91¢ $184 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 90¢ $182 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 33¢ $60 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 33¢ $61 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 56¢ $7 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 56¢ $8 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 56¢ $167 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 56¢ $182 8d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL No 80¢ $94 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.99 · official $0.00 (match) · 405 history records