Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:18:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
BC 0xbcde…c80b other 21 markets active 9h ago coverage 15d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$74 (+5%) realized +$62 · open +$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +197% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +158% what you keep after slip
Net edge+158%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate33%2W / 4L
Drawdown53%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit10%portable
Net worth$947now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 15d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 92% +$43
crypto 5% +$9
sports 4% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)+169.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +197.4% +169.1% 33% 17% +4.1%
≤30d 6 +197.4% +169.1% 33% 17% +4.1%
≤90d 6 +197.4% +169.1% 33% 17% +4.1%
all 6 +197.4% +169.1% 33% 17% +4.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +169.1% 17% +4.1%
10% +143.3% 17% -5.9%
15% +119.8% 17% -15.0%
20% +98.3% 17% -23.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 98% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +197% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$6 · ×5.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.88 per $1 lost it wins $2.88
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$947
Realized+$62
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses2 / 4
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions15
Markets (closed)6 / 21
History coverage15d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit10%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $202 $252 +$50 (+25%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $261 $240 −$21 (-8%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 13¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $68 $78 +$9 (+14%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $38 $56 +$18 (+47%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $40 $41 +$1 (+2%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $43 $35 −$8 (-19%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $36 $31 −$4 (-12%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $36 $29 −$6 (-18%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $29 $29 +$0 (+1%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $18 $17 −$1 (-7%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $18 $13 −$5 (-26%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $15 $11 −$4 (-28%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $20 $10 −$10 (-48%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $44 +$62 +141%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $51 +$1 +3%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $28 −$8 -28%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $15 −$2 -14%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $71 −$9 -12%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $104 −$3 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $30 8h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $8 8h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 21h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $41 31h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 2d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 3d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 3d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 3d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $15 3d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 3d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 4d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 4d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $52 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 58¢ $104 4d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 4d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $51 5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 21¢ $39 5d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $8 5d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $64 6d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $20 6d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $42 6d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $10 6d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $13 6d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $13 6d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $62 6d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 9¢ $101 6d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 9d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $20 9d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $27 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $946.55 · official $946.88 (match) · 80 history records