Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:15:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BC 0xbcdf…9bd0 other 44 markets active 0h ago coverage 449d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate35%15W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 57% +$9
other 27% −$10
finance 9% +$2
tech 3% $0
crypto 1% $0
politics 1% +$1
culture 1% $0
economics 1% $0
sports 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -2.7% -12.0% 0% 0% -11.0%
≤30d 14 +1.5% -8.2% 36% 7% -8.1%
≤90d 14 +1.5% -8.2% 36% 7% -8.1%
all 43 -4.4% -13.5% 35% 5% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 5% -9.6%
10% -21.8% 0% -18.2%
15% -29.4% 0% -26.1%
20% -36.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

449d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses15 / 28
Open positions1
Markets (closed)43 / 44
History coverage449d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 98¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $51 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $13 −$1 -9%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $52 $0 -1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $55 −$2 -4%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 27 $73 +$2 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $101 +$2 +2%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 25 $45 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 25 $18 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 24 $19 +$1 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 23 $39 +$6 +15%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 21 $46 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 21 $36 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 20 $18 +$2 +8%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 26 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 13 $4 $0 +10%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 24 $2 −$1 -33%
Will XRP reach $4.0 in July? Jul 24 $5 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jul 24 $5 $0 +4%
Will Elon tweet 195–209 times June 27–July 4? Jul 03 $5 $0 +1%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Jul 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? Jul 03 $5 $0 +1%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Jul 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Jul 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 National League Championship? Jul 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 02 $5 $0 -6%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Jul 01 $5 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 60% and 100% on August 1 Jun 26 $5 $0 +3%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jun 05 $5 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2025 French Open? Jun 03 $5 $0 -1%
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jun 01 $5 $0 -2%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on May 31? Jun 01 $10 $0 -1%
Will Elon tweet 150–174 times May 16–23? May 24 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Manchester United win the UEFA Europa League? May 21 $11 $0 -2%
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? May 20 $10 +$1 +12%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? May 06 $2 $0 +1%
Will Real Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will 'Lilo & Stich' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? Apr 18 $9 $0 +0%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 16 $11 $0 -0%
TikTok sale announced before May? Apr 15 $11 $0 -0%
Will the New York Rangers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 15 $2 $0 +1%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 30 $14 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $51 19m
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $51 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 19¢ $2 9h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 18¢ $7 11h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 18¢ $3 11h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 20¢ $13 13h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $52 15h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $52 17h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $53 23h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $55 28h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $50 34h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $50 35h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $2 40h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $52 23d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $36 23d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $14 23d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes $3 23d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $3 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 78¢ $26 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 78¢ $25 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 83¢ $31 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 83¢ $23 24d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL Yes $2 25d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL Yes $0 25d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY Yes $2 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 24¢ $2 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 24¢ $13 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 24¢ $3 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 24¢ $0 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 24¢ $8 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.95 · official $1.95 (match) · 128 history records