Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:12:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BC 0xbce2…1693 crypto 159 markets active 1h ago coverage 285d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$1,137 (-10%) realized −$1,137 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate60%90W / 59L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$74per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$22
7 days+$79
14 days+$122
30 days+$122
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 62% −$616
other 16% +$54
world 13% −$362
sports 3% +$158
economics 3% −$222
politics 2% −$19
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+1.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +14.5% +3.6% 60% 53% +21.7%
≤30d 17 +34.8% +21.9% 59% 53% +35.6%
≤90d 17 +34.8% +21.9% 59% 53% +35.6%
all 149 +12.6% +1.8% 60% 40% -17.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.8% 40% -17.3%
10% -7.9% 31% -25.3%
15% -16.8% 21% -32.5%
20% -25.0% 16% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +50% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$39 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

285d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized−$1,137
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses90 / 59
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions4
Markets (closed)149 / 159
History coverage285d
Avg bet$74
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 149 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 72¢ 74¢ $29 $29 +$1 (+2%)
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Over 70¢ 69¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Morocco? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Over 43¢ 42¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 29 $28 +$10 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 29 $15 +$1 +6%
Will Canada reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $15 +$5 +33%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -89%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $30 −$24 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 28 $11 −$10 -95%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 AND Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $10 +$4 +40%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $8 +$8 +99%
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score AND Netherlands to score first v Jun 26 $25 +$23 +91%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -99%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 0.5 AND Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 1.5 AND Sc Jun 25 $25 +$26 +105%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score AND Will Brazil win on 202 Jun 25 $14 +$30 +208%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 AND France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 AND Norway vs Jun 23 $20 +$34 +170%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $10 +$48 +463%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -89%
Spread: Patriots (-3.5) Jan 18 $24 +$22 +92%
Spread: Seahawks (-7.5) Jan 18 $12 +$12 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 5AM ET Jan 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 3AM ET Jan 17 $15 +$4 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 2AM ET Jan 17 $14 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 1AM ET Jan 17 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 12AM ET Jan 17 $7 +$3 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 10PM ET Jan 17 $4 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on January 15? Jan 15 $170 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 14? Jan 14 $46 −$43 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on January 14? Jan 14 $55 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 13? Jan 13 $303 +$6 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 12? Jan 12 $95 +$4 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 12? Jan 12 $18 +$1 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 12? Jan 12 $277 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 11? Jan 11 $53 +$2 +4%
Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by January 31? Jan 08 $4 $0 -1%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1 Jan 08 $26 +$8 +31%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 Jan 08 $22 −$6 -28%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 4? Jan 04 $43 +$2 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on December 31? Dec 31 $293 +$5 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on December 31? Dec 31 $137 +$4 +3%
Will "Stranger Things: Season 5" be the top US Netflix show this week? Dec 31 $144 +$61 +42%
LoL: Oh My God vs LNG Esports (BO5) Dec 28 $10 −$5 -49%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? Dec 26 $911 −$2 -0%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) Dec 25 $13 +$2 +16%
LoL: Team WE vs LGD Gaming (BO3) Dec 25 $23 +$7 +28%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Dec 24 $821 −$8 -1%
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? Dec 23 $91 +$2 +2%
Spurs vs. Wizards Dec 22 $51 +$8 +16%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on December 9? Dec 09 $9 −$1 -11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on December 8? Dec 08 $8 $0 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90,000 and $92,000 on December 6 Dec 06 $2 +$1 +56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 31m
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $4 33m
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $14 35m
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $38 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $28 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up $0 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up $0 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET SELL Down 23¢ $2 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET SELL Down 23¢ $13 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $6 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $4 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 15h
Will Canada reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 23h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL $1 23h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 23h
Will Canada reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 75¢ $15 28h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 59¢ $30 35h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY 41¢ $5 36h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 72¢ $29 37h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 AND Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY 71¢ $10 2d
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 AND Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to BUY 43¢ $16 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY 49¢ $8 3d
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 67¢ $10 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 4d
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score AND Netherlands to score first v BUY 52¢ $25 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.30 · official $52.30 (match) · 966 history records