Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T15:14:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
BC 0xbce4…ddc9 sports 20 markets active 4d ago coverage 169d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$451 (+41%) realized +$451 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate85%17W / 3L
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$266
7 days+$266
14 days+$326
30 days+$585
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% +$470
world 8% −$32
other 3% +$3
economics 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)+9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +180.2% +153.6% 100% 100% +153.6%
≤30d 5 +90.9% +72.7% 100% 100% +74.7%
≤90d 16 +25.0% +13.1% 81% 62% +29.6%
all 20 +21.2% +9.6% 85% 55% +27.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.6% 55% +27.2%
10% -0.9% 40% +15.0%
15% -10.4% 30% +3.9%
20% -19.2% 20% -6.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 70% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +43% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +41% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late +58% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$69 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.14 per $1 lost it wins $3.14
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

169d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$451
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses17 / 3
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)20 / 20
History coverage169d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 20 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $148 +$266 +180%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $183 +$59 +32%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 07 $76 +$35 +46%
Roland Garros ATP: Arthur Rinderknech vs Jurij Rodionov May 25 $104 +$39 +38%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies May 23 $117 +$186 +158%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 15 $98 −$96 -99%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 15 $42 +$25 +60%
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90%? May 09 $7 +$1 +19%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? May 09 $10 +$1 +13%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee May 09 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? May 09 $12 +$1 +10%
Will there be at least 1400 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 202 May 09 $14 $0 +1%
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 15, 2026? May 09 $11 +$12 +117%
Thunder vs. Suns May 09 $73 +$19 +26%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 28 $64 −$63 -100%
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026? Apr 16 $47 −$47 -100%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 03 $15 +$3 +20%
Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $220 end of January? Feb 03 $20 $0 +0%
Will no one dissent the January Fed decision? Feb 03 $20 $0 +2%
Nothing Ever Happens: Nuclear Edition Jan 10 $20 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 37 history records