Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:53:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BC 0xbce7…896c crypto 57 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$367 (-4%) realized −$367 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate63%36W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$163per market
Trades / day36.5pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 56% −$288
other 30% −$238
sports 13% −$56
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-20.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 57 -11.8% -20.2% 63% 23% -15.2%
≤30d 57 -11.8% -20.2% 63% 23% -15.2%
≤90d 57 -11.8% -20.2% 63% 23% -15.2%
all 57 -11.8% -20.2% 63% 23% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.2% 23% -15.2%
10% ← realistic here -27.8% 18% -23.3%
15% -34.8% 7% -30.7%
20% -41.2% 5% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$62 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$367
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses36 / 21
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)57 / 57
History coverage4d
Avg bet$163
Trades / day36.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 57 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 19 $307 −$204 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 19 $406 +$38 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 19 $301 +$7 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 19 $301 +$13 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 19 $403 −$51 -13%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 19 $100 +$4 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 19 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 19 $404 +$77 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 19 $301 +$16 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 19 $301 +$9 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 19 $201 +$9 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 19 $301 +$11 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 19 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 19 $201 +$11 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 19 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 19 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 19 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 19 $102 +$28 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 19 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 19 $100 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 19 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 19 $100 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 19 $108 +$49 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 19 $105 −$5 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$4 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 19 $15 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$5 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$18 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 19 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 19 $101 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 19 $101 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 19 $107 −$107 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 19 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $423 +$61 +14%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $523 −$243 -46%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $627 +$39 +6%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $54 −$6 -11%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $497 +$136 +27%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $529 −$266 -50%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $198 +$12 +6%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $192 +$6 +3%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $190 +$2 +1%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 −$9 -17%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $121 +$79 +65%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $182 −$89 -49%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $191 +$44 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $100 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $4 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $104 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $101 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $101 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $103 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Up 41¢ $50 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $102 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $100 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $100 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $100 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $101 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $101 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Down 24¢ $26 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $101 49m
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $100 53m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $103 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $100 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 210 history records