Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:38:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BC 0xbce9…eb54 other 46 markets active 6d ago coverage 246d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-1%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate28%13W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% +$2
other 29% −$8
sports 13% −$1
politics 7% $0
crypto 7% −$1
culture 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +3.2% -6.7% 100% 0% -6.7%
≤30d 12 -2.6% -11.9% 33% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 14 -3.7% -12.9% 36% 0% -9.4%
all 46 -3.3% -12.5% 28% 2% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 2% -10.2%
10% -20.9% 2% -18.8%
15% -28.5% 0% -26.6%
20% -35.5% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

246d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses13 / 33
Open positions0
Markets (closed)46 / 46
History coverage246d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 46 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 11 $38 +$1 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $33 −$1 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 09 $40 −$1 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $39 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $18 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $40 $0 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 08 $5 −$1 -29%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $44 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $42 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $11 −$1 -6%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $45 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $83 +$4 +5%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $22 $0 +1%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 16 $6 −$1 -21%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-12-02? Feb 02 $49 −$7 -15%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 05 $2 +$1 +25%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $21 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $7 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $52 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $7 $0 +0%
Panthers vs. 49ers Nov 24 $19 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 24 $13 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 23 $9 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 23 $17 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 23 $28 $0 +0%
Will Getafe win on 2025-11-28? Nov 23 $9 $0 +0%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-11-23? Nov 22 $8 $0 +0%
Miami vs. Virginia Tech Nov 21 $18 $0 +0%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 21 $19 $0 +0%
Buccaneers vs. Rams Nov 20 $18 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 20 $2 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $250 in October? Nov 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 23 $20 $0 -0%
Will KPop Demon Hunters (Soundtrack from the Netflix Film) by KPop Dem Oct 22 $20 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? Oct 22 $18 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025 Oct 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will Curtis Sliwa win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 19 $1 $0 -14%
Trump out as President in 2025? Oct 18 $22 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025? Oct 18 $22 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elizabeth Holmes in 2025? Oct 17 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 17 $22 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 14 $22 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Oct 13 $22 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US? Oct 13 $21 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 09 $4 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 08 $24 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 65¢ $39 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 63¢ $3 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 63¢ $30 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 63¢ $5 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 37¢ $18 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 37¢ $14 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 38¢ $19 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 38¢ $14 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 69¢ $7 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 69¢ $32 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 71¢ $40 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 91¢ $14 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 91¢ $25 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 91¢ $39 8d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $2 8d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $16 8d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $14 8d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL No 97¢ $31 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL No 97¢ $9 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY No 96¢ $40 9d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 9d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 9d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 9d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 9d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $44 10d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $44 10d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $30 10d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $11 10d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $40 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 186 history records