Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T14:01:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
BC 0xbceb…52a5 tech 70 markets active 2h ago coverage 201d
RISKYcopy with care
Total PnL +$1,222 (+13%) realized +$1,194 · open +$28
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +14% what you keep after slip
Net edge+14%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate63%38W / 22L
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$130per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$1,578now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$185
14 days+$202
30 days+$308
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 39% +$651
other 26% +$186
politics 20% +$356
world 14% $0
finance 1% +$13
crypto 0% −$8
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +72.3% +55.9% 100% 100% +57.1%
≤30d 12 +15.8% +4.8% 92% 50% +3.7%
≤90d 36 +1.4% -8.3% 75% 53% +2.1%
all 60 +26.2% +14.2% 63% 42% +0.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +14.2% 42% +0.6%
10% +3.3% 22% -9.0%
15% -6.7% 18% -17.8%
20% -15.9% 10% -25.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +42% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$20 · ×2.13 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.68 per $1 lost it wins $3.68
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

201d coverage
Net worth$1,578
Realized+$1,194
Unrealized+$28
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses38 / 22
Open positions10
Markets (closed)60 / 70
History coverage201d
Avg bet$130
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? Jun 16 $51 +$33 +65%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 16 $100 +$95 +95%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 15 $100 +$56 +56%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $100 +$7 +7%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 12 $300 +$10 +3%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Jun 02 $31 +$4 +14%
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $201 +$25 +12%
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Cont Jun 01 $301 +$32 +11%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 31 $401 +$31 +8%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 31 $401 +$27 +7%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap May 30 $100 +$7 +7%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 29 $21 −$20 -96%
Will Gemini 3.2 be released on May 19? May 19 $100 +$10 +10%
Gemini 3.2 released by May 22, 2026? May 19 $100 +$12 +12%
Gemini 3.2 released by May 19, 2026? May 19 $301 +$15 +5%
Will AKEL win the most seats at the Cyprus House of Representatives el May 19 $10 +$2 +15%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 13 $302 +$43 +14%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 13 $601 −$3 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? May 12 $300 +$2 +1%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Apr 30 $626 +$175 +28%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 30 $100 +$12 +12%
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 30 $301 +$41 +14%
Iran leadership change by May 31? Apr 28 $50 −$30 -60%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Apr 28 $50 −$19 -39%
DeepSeek V4 released by May 15? Apr 24 $100 +$17 +17%
DeepSeek V4 released by April 30? Apr 24 $100 +$45 +45%
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap Apr 16 $100 −$78 -78%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 13 $150 +$75 +50%
Will Tisza win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parl Apr 13 $522 +$91 +17%
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t Apr 13 $100 +$54 +54%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Apr 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in January? Apr 06 $8 −$3 -36%
S&P 500 all time high by December 31? Apr 06 $20 −$20 -100%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Apr 06 $5 −$5 -100%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 06 $100 +$42 +42%
Will Google have the #3 AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 03 $30 +$11 +37%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 20 $5 +$426 +8521%
Will ChatGPT be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 30? Jan 30 $20 −$12 -62%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Jan 30 $61 −$28 -46%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Jan 07 $20 −$8 -40%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Jan 04 $50 +$7 +14%
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap Jan 04 $51 +$10 +19%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by December 31? Jan 04 $43 +$21 +48%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model for math at the end of 2025? Jan 04 $242 +$18 +8%
First to 5k: Gold or ETH? Dec 26 $40 −$8 -20%
GPT ads by December 31? Dec 23 $193 +$4 +2%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Dec 22 $2 −$1 -61%
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in December? Dec 22 $20 −$16 -78%
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by December 31? Dec 22 $50 −$40 -81%
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by December 31? Dec 22 $70 −$55 -79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $50 1h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $50 1h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $100 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 91¢ $100 2d
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 87¢ $201 2d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $200 2d
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap BUY Yes 75¢ $202 4d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 69¢ $51 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $100 4d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? SELL Yes 96¢ $84 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $195 4d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 5d
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap BUY Yes 69¢ $101 6d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 96¢ $301 6d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $100 6d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? BUY Yes 97¢ $300 12d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? BUY Yes 93¢ $100 12d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 64¢ $100 19d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $100 19d
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on SELL Yes 43¢ $35 19d
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $100 22d
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY Yes 36¢ $31 22d
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap SELL Yes 100¢ $107 22d
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on SELL Yes $1 23d
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $200 24d
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $201 25d
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY Yes 16¢ $21 27d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $300 32d
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $101 32d
Will AKEL win the most seats at the Cyprus House of Representatives el SELL Yes 22¢ $12 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,577.54 · official $1,577.55 (match) · 151 history records