Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T11:52:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
BC 0xbced…5808 sports 1712 markets active 1h ago coverage 78d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 77d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$46 (+0%) realized −$27 · open +$73
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate53%881W / 797L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day26.8pace
Fees−$663est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$786now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 78d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% −$1,631
other 6% −$597
world 2% +$220
politics 1% +$29
culture 0% −$54
finance 0% +$19
crypto 0% +$31
tech 0% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 84 -1.1% -10.6% 60% 60% -4.7%
≤30d 866 -30.1% -36.8% 38% 37% -51.8%
≤90d 1678 -3.2% -12.4% 53% 52% -12.8%
all 1678 -3.2% -12.4% 53% 52% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.4% 52% -12.8%
10% ← realistic here -20.8% 47% -21.1%
15% -28.5% 42% -28.7%
20% -35.5% 35% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +26% → late -32% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$30 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$786
Realized−$27
Unrealized+$73
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses881 / 797
Est. fees paid−$663
Open positions34
Markets (closed)1678 / 1712
History coverage78d ⚠
Avg bet$34
Trades / day26.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 34 History 1678 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 80¢ 99¢ $52 $65 +$13 (+24%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 75¢ 99¢ $38 $49 +$12 (+32%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June? No 83¢ 99¢ $39 $47 +$8 (+19%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 61¢ 100¢ $28 $46 +$18 (+64%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 83¢ 100¢ $38 $46 +$8 (+20%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? No 69¢ 99¢ $29 $42 +$13 (+44%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 56¢ 58¢ $37 $39 +$2 (+4%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 58¢ 100¢ $21 $37 +$15 (+72%)
Will Morocco reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 90¢ $30 $33 +$2 (+7%)
Wimbledon ATP: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Max Basing Shintaro Mochizuki 68¢ 99¢ $21 $31 +$10 (+46%)
Will Switzerland reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 92¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 91¢ 100¢ $25 $27 +$2 (+10%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Sinners (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stage BetBoom Team 73¢ 72¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-1%)
Wimbledon WTA: Magda Linette vs Mirra Andreeva Mirra Andreeva 81¢ 81¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) Max Holloway 70¢ 66¢ $24 $23 −$1 (-5%)
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 78¢ 74¢ $23 $22 −$1 (-6%)
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Team Nemesis (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stage Monte 63¢ 60¢ $23 $22 −$1 (-4%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $22 $21 −$0 (-1%)
Wimbledon WTA: Maria Sakkari vs Clara Tauson Clara Tauson 63¢ 64¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 52¢ 49¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-5%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Detroit Tigers 51¢ 50¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-1%)
Wimbledon ATP: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Botic van de Zandschulp Botic van de Zandschulp 61¢ 54¢ $19 $17 −$2 (-12%)
Spread: France (-1.5) Sweden 45¢ 44¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-1%)
Wimbledon ATP: Soon-Woo Kwon vs Martin Landaluce Martin Landaluce 60¢ 60¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+1%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 48¢ 50¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 295 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Wimbledon WTA: Belinda Bencic vs Mika Stojsavljevic Jun 29 $25 +$4 +16%
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In Jun 29 $27 +$4 +14%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $26 +$19 +76%
Game Handicap: TL (-1.5) vs Deep Cross Gaming (+1.5) Jun 28 $11 −$11 -98%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Ugo Humbert Jun 28 $8 +$23 +270%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Jun 28 $33 +$4 +12%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $5 +$1 +18%
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $47 +$6 +13%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets Jun 28 $18 +$14 +79%
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 27 $16 +$16 +105%
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Set 1 Winner: Bergs vs Humbert Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $29 +$8 +26%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $24 +$5 +20%
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $19 +$21 +105%
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 27 $16 +$16 +101%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 27 $25 +$10 +40%
Spread: Cabo Verde (-1.5) Jun 27 $15 +$3 +17%
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 27 $18 +$14 +79%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -98%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $14 −$14 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 26 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 26 $32 −$32 -99%
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? Jun 26 $25 +$24 +92%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 26 $26 +$12 +44%
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $14 +$12 +83%
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $22 +$14 +61%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $6 −$6 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $27 −$26 -99%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jan Choinski vs Zizou Bergs Jun 25 $4 −$4 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Maria Timofeeva vs Heather Watson Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Caty McNally vs Petra Marcinko Jun 25 $11 −$11 -99%
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $29 +$7 +24%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 25 $15 +$8 +50%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 Jun 25 $25 +$13 +52%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $18 +$3 +16%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $12 −$12 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Caroline Werner vs Alina Charaeva Jun 24 $25 +$4 +16%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 24 $46 +$6 +12%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Aziz Dougaz vs Rei Sakamoto Jun 24 $19 +$8 +40%
Bad Homburg Open: Karolina Muchova vs Irina-Camelia Begu Jun 24 $27 +$4 +14%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Jaime Faria vs Luka Pavlovic Jun 24 $12 +$5 +38%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Kimmer Coppejans Jun 24 $23 +$5 +20%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Alina Korneeva vs Andrea Lazaro Garcia Jun 24 $5 +$2 +44%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $36 −$36 -99%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Zizou Bergs Jun 24 $14 +$8 +57%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 24 $14 −$14 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Polina Iatcenko vs Zhuoxuan Bai Jun 24 $17 −$16 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Wimbledon ATP: Emilio Nava vs Ignacio Buse BUY Emilio Nava 38¢ $5 1h
Wimbledon WTA: Katerina Siniakova vs Qinwen Zheng BUY Katerina Siniakova 58¢ $5 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Adam Walton vs Dino Prizmic BUY Adam Walton 44¢ $5 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Soon-Woo Kwon vs Martin Landaluce BUY Martin Landaluce 60¢ $11 1h
Wimbledon WTA: Maria Sakkari vs Clara Tauson BUY Clara Tauson 63¢ $20 1h
Wimbledon WTA: Belinda Bencic vs Mika Stojsavljevic BUY Belinda Bencic 86¢ $25 1h
Wimbledon WTA: Magda Linette vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Mirra Andreeva 81¢ $25 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Max Basing BUY Shintaro Mochizuki 68¢ $21 1h
Wimbledon WTA: Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Maja Chwalinska BUY Mananchaya Sawangkaew 43¢ $14 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Botic van de Zandschulp BUY Botic van de Zandschulp 61¢ $19 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Sebastian Baez BUY Sebastian Baez 29¢ $9 1h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Sinners (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group S BUY BetBoom Team 73¢ $27 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 43¢ $22 1h
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Team Nemesis (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Sta BUY Monte 63¢ $23 17h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Paraguay 51¢ $5 18h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Sweden 45¢ $15 18h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 27¢ $5 21h
Wimbledon WTA: Elsa Jacquemot vs Naomi Osaka BUY Elsa Jacquemot 14¢ $5 21h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY T1 87¢ $27 21h
Game Handicap: TL (-1.5) vs Deep Cross Gaming (+1.5) BUY Deep Cross Gaming 33¢ $11 21h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 84¢ $5 38h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Ugo Humbert BUY Zizou Bergs 27¢ $3 45h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Ugo Humbert BUY Zizou Bergs 27¢ $6 45h
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Kansas City Royals 44¢ $10 45h
Set 1 Winner: Bergs vs Humbert BUY Bergs 33¢ $2 45h
Set 1 Winner: Bergs vs Humbert BUY Bergs 33¢ $8 45h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 55¢ $18 45h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 48¢ $16 45h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 56¢ $26 45h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 30¢ $15 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $786.21 · official $786.22 (match) · 3500 history records