Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T21:01:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

BC
0xbcf1…bfa3
crypto · 1381 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$51 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$47 · open −$5
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$17
Realized−$47
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses1068 / 306
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)1374 / 1381
History coverage119d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day13.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 7 History 1374 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$25
7 days+$24
14 days+$14
30 days−$58
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? No 94¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+0%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? No 83¢ 82¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
XRP Up or Down - May 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - April 21, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - March 27, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - April 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Down 63¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Up 62¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Up 68¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Down 83¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - May 8, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Up 75¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Real Betis win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Down 96¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Up 78¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - May 6, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Up 71¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Down 72¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - April 12, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Down 64¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Down 94¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$8 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +29%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 99% −$54
other 1% +$2
sports 0% +$7
world 0% −$5
politics 0% −$1
tech 0% $0
economics 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 176 +3.7% -6.2% 89% 38% -7.1%
≤30d 795 -0.3% -9.8% 81% 39% -11.2%
≤90d 1362 -0.0% -9.5% 78% 42% -10.1%
all 1374 -0.5% -9.9% 78% 42% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover13.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 42% -10.3%
10% -18.6% 27% -18.8%
15% -26.4% 18% -26.7%
20% -33.6% 10% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.26 · official $17.31 (match) · 2886 history records