Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:41:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BC 0xbcf2…1e5b sports 372 markets active 2h ago coverage 602d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Covers last 601d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$1,517 (+2%) realized −$609 · open +$2,126
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate58%214W / 156L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$173per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Fees−$67est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$4,000now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$982
30 days−$982
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% +$2,294
other 12% +$1,444
politics 1% +$1
crypto 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 60 -12.7% -21.0% 52% 48% -23.4%
all 370 +4.5% -5.5% 58% 52% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.5% 52% -6.6%
10% -14.5% 42% -15.6%
15% -22.8% 32% -23.7%
20% -30.3% 22% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +12% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
8.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$67 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

602d coverage
Net worth$4,000
Realized−$609
Unrealized+$2,126
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses214 / 156
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$67
Open positions2
Markets (closed)370 / 372
History coverage602d ⚠
Avg bet$173
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 370 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 30¢ 70¢ $1,595 $3,763 +$2,168 (+136%)
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Yes 19¢ 16¢ $280 $237 −$42 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 82 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $187 −$182 -97%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $307 −$300 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $510 −$500 -98%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs AaB Esport (BO3) - United21 Group D May 07 $172 −$166 -97%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #20 Playoffs May 07 $117 +$36 +30%
Counter-Strike: ShindeN vs UNO MILLE (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Sou May 07 $128 +$37 +29%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #20 P May 07 $434 +$32 +7%
Counter-Strike: ex-MINLATE vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #20 Grou May 07 $298 +$51 +17%
Counter-Strike: ENCE Academy vs eLITenergy (BO3) - ESL Challenger Leag Apr 06 $74 −$74 -100%
Counter-Strike: UNiTY esports vs MANA eSports (BO3) - ESL Challenger L Apr 06 $61 +$10 +17%
Counter-Strike: ASTRAL vs Omega (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #20 Group St Apr 06 $73 +$27 +36%
Counter-Strike: Just Players vs eLITenergy (BO3) - ESL Challenger Leag Apr 05 $180 −$178 -99%
Counter-Strike: MANA eSports vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - ESL Challenger Apr 05 $33 +$16 +50%
Counter-Strike: Arcade Esports vs Abyssal (BO3) - ESL Challenger Leagu Apr 05 $119 −$40 -33%
Counter-Strike: UNiTY esports vs ENCE Academy (BO3) - ESL Challenger L Apr 05 $76 +$73 +95%
Counter-Strike: ECSTATIC vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #19 Apr 05 $98 +$51 +52%
Counter-Strike: eLITenergy vs QUAZAR (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Eur Apr 05 $126 +$150 +119%
Counter-Strike: Metizport vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #20 Group Apr 04 $22 −$22 -98%
Counter-Strike: MINLATE vs Ursa (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #20 Group St Apr 03 $19 −$19 -98%
Counter-Strike: ESC Gaming vs ALGO Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Series # Apr 03 $234 −$11 -5%
Counter-Strike: ex-Zero Tenacity vs RUSTEC (BO3) - ESL Challenger Leag Apr 03 $6 +$4 +54%
Counter-Strike: TNT vs Ursa (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup # Apr 03 $144 −$95 -66%
Counter-Strike: Rare Atom vs Just Swing (BO3) - Yuqilin Pinnacle of Ba Apr 03 $41 +$9 +22%
Counter-Strike: AaB Esport vs Infinite (BO3) - United21 Group D Apr 03 $80 +$19 +24%
Counter-Strike: ECSTATIC vs Ursa (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #19 Playoff Apr 03 $174 +$74 +42%
Counter-Strike: CSDIILIT vs QUAZAR (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Euro Apr 02 $18 −$17 -98%
Counter-Strike: Boring Players vs BMZ (BO3) - ESL Challenger League As Apr 02 $2 −$2 -97%
Counter-Strike: ASTRAL vs megoshort (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #20 Grou Apr 02 $39 −$39 -99%
Counter-Strike: ESC Gaming vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #19 P Apr 02 $15 +$17 +108%
Counter-Strike: ENCE Academy vs QUAZAR (BO3) - ESL Challenger League E Apr 02 $32 +$18 +59%
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs 8Sins (BO3) - ESL Challenger League E Apr 02 $51 +$9 +18%
Counter-Strike: CSDIILIT vs m1x (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Apr 02 $159 +$138 +86%
Counter-Strike: OG vs ALGO Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #19 Playo Apr 02 $251 +$81 +32%
Counter-Strike: ASTRAL vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #20 Group S Apr 01 $31 −$31 -99%
Counter-Strike: BESTIA vs 3DMAX (BO1) - Parken Challenger Championship Apr 01 $348 −$92 -26%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs AM Gaming (BO1) - Parken Challenger Championship Apr 01 $202 +$97 +48%
Counter-Strike: Phantom vs AM Gaming (BO1) - Parken Challenger Champio Mar 31 $11 +$7 +64%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Falcons Force (BO1) - Parken Challenger Champ Mar 31 $60 +$23 +38%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs WAZABI (BO1) - Parken Challenger Championship Gr Mar 31 $401 −$9 -2%
Counter-Strike: MINLATE vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Mar 31 $159 +$102 +64%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Z7 Esports (BO1) - Parken Challenger Championshi Mar 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: eLITenergy vs CSDIILIT (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Mar 31 $199 −$132 -66%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs ex-Zero Tenacity (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Mar 31 $163 +$77 +47%
Counter-Strike: Omega vs G2 Ares (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Mar 30 $75 −$75 -100%
Counter-Strike: HEROIC Academy vs Lilmix (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Mar 30 $22 −$22 -99%
Counter-Strike: Mindfreak vs Rooster (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Oce Mar 27 $161 +$52 +32%
Counter-Strike: SemperFi Esports vs Ground Zero (BO3) - ESL Challenger Mar 27 $47 +$3 +6%
Counter-Strike: Fake do Biru vs Bounty Hunters Esports (BO3) - CCT Sou Mar 27 $55 −$5 -9%
Counter-Strike: SportsBetExpert vs Chicken Coop Esports (BO3) - ESL Ch Mar 27 $30 +$20 +70%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 1WIN (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup # Mar 27 $172 −$87 -51%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 28¢ $97 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 30¢ $21 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 30¢ $410 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 30¢ $83 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 30¢ $1,007 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 48¢ $4,618 2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 45¢ $11 3h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 45¢ $3,364 3h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 3h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 19¢ $285 3h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $1,715 3h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 10¢ $187 10d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $307 10d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 32¢ $510 10d
Counter-Strike: ShindeN vs UNO MILLE (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Sou BUY ShindeN 75¢ $3 74d
Counter-Strike: ShindeN vs UNO MILLE (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Sou BUY ShindeN 75¢ $10 74d
Counter-Strike: ShindeN vs UNO MILLE (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Sou BUY ShindeN 74¢ $37 74d
Counter-Strike: ShindeN vs UNO MILLE (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Sou BUY ShindeN 75¢ $38 74d
Counter-Strike: ShindeN vs UNO MILLE (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Sou BUY ShindeN 85¢ $1 74d
Counter-Strike: ShindeN vs UNO MILLE (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Sou BUY ShindeN 85¢ $1 74d
Counter-Strike: ShindeN vs UNO MILLE (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Sou BUY ShindeN 85¢ $5 74d
Counter-Strike: ShindeN vs UNO MILLE (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Sou BUY ShindeN 84¢ $34 74d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #20 Playoffs BUY BIG 66¢ $15 74d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #20 Playoffs BUY BIG 68¢ $21 74d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #20 Playoffs BUY BIG 80¢ $40 74d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #20 Playoffs BUY BIG 83¢ $30 74d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #20 Playoffs BUY BIG 83¢ $12 74d
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #20 P BUY Team Nemesis 80¢ $40 74d
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #20 P BUY Team Nemesis 75¢ $38 74d
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #20 P BUY Team Nemesis 72¢ $36 74d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,000.41 · official $4,000.41 (match) · 3458 history records