Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:33:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BC 0xbcf4…e2f7 crypto 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$9 (-10%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -45% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -58% what you keep after slip
Net edge-58%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate29%4W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day23.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-50.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -44.8% -50.1% 29% 21% -49.7%
≤30d 14 -44.8% -50.1% 29% 21% -49.7%
≤90d 14 -44.8% -50.1% 29% 21% -49.7%
all 14 -44.8% -50.1% 29% 21% -49.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -50.1% 21% -49.7%
10% ← realistic here -54.9% 14% -54.5%
15% -59.2% 14% -58.9%
20% -63.2% 0% -62.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 76% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -44% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -45% · $-wt -44% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -51% → late -39% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses4 / 10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage1d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day23.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$5 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$5 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$9 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $5 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 31 history records