Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:25:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BC 0xbcf7…bd6d politics 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 307d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate21%7W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 26% $0
world 24% −$1
crypto 22% $0
other 9% $0
culture 6% $0
tech 6% $0
economics 6% $0
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 6 -0.6% -10.0% 17% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 6 -0.6% -10.0% 17% 0% -10.1%
all 33 -0.3% -9.8% 21% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 83% · top 2 97% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

307d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses7 / 26
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage307d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 94¢ 95¢ $29 $29 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 27 $39 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $39 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 25 $8 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $37 +$2 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 24 $41 −$3 -8%
Will Alberta join the US? May 23 $40 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Aug 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Farmer–Citizen Movement win the most seats in the 2025 Nether Aug 21 $40 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 21 $45 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $5.00 in August? Aug 21 $45 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 21 $5 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 20 $45 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in August? Aug 20 $41 $0 +0%
Will Sebastian Burduja be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman as next Fed Chair in 2025? Aug 20 $45 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in August? Aug 20 $45 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 19 $50 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 19 $2 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 18 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 18 $39 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $135K in August? Aug 18 $41 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 18 $2 $0 -6%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in US? Aug 18 $47 $0 +1%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Aug 17 $5 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 16 $5 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 15 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $27 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $2 9h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 72¢ $39 22d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 72¢ $39 22d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $39 22d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $39 22d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $8 23d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 24d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 24d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $7 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 52¢ $40 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 49¢ $37 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 33¢ $37 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 36¢ $41 25d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $40 25d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $40 25d
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? SELL No 96¢ $5 300d
Will the Farmer–Citizen Movement win the most seats in the 2025 Nether SELL No 99¢ $2 300d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $45 300d
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? BUY No 96¢ $5 300d
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? SELL No 98¢ $5 301d
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? BUY No 98¢ $5 301d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 95¢ $45 301d
Will XRP reach $5.00 in August? SELL No 99¢ $45 301d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $5 301d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $5 301d
Will XRP reach $5.00 in August? BUY No 99¢ $45 301d
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? SELL No 97¢ $45 301d
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? SELL No 97¢ $5 301d
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? BUY No 97¢ $5 301d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.34 · official $29.34 (match) · 83 history records