Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:01:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BC 0xbcf8…e164 crypto 1222 markets active 1d ago coverage 85d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$225 (-5%) realized −$225 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate53%644W / 578L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day21.8pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$22
14 days−$13
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$270
other 3% −$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -17.8% -25.6% 68% 68% -25.2%
≤30d 76 -2.8% -12.0% 80% 80% -11.8%
≤90d 1222 -9.0% -17.7% 53% 44% -15.7%
all 1222 -9.0% -17.7% 53% 44% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.7% 44% -15.7%
10% ← realistic here -25.6% 34% -23.8%
15% -32.8% 24% -31.1%
20% -39.4% 17% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$225
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses644 / 578
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1222 / 1222
History coverage85d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day21.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1222 Trades
no open positions (21 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 07 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 05 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 05 $5 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 05 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 05 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 05 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 04 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 04 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 03 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET May 30 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET May 29 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET May 29 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET May 29 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 29 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET May 29 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET May 29 $5 +$1 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2918 history records