Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:48:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BC 0xbcfa…cab8 crypto 369 markets active 0h ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,654 (-1%) realized −$3,654 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate90%332W / 37L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$717per market
Trades / day8.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,952
7 days−$611
14 days−$1,419
30 days−$1,371
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 75% −$1,371
sports 25% −$2,476
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 210 +3.2% -6.7% 92% 29% -9.8%
≤30d 223 +2.4% -7.3% 92% 28% -9.8%
≤90d 223 +2.4% -7.3% 92% 28% -9.8%
all 369 +1.0% -8.6% 90% 43% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.9 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.6% 43% -10.5%
10% ← realistic here -17.4% 8% -19.1%
15% -25.4% 4% -26.9%
20% -32.7% 1% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$885) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$55 vs −$602 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,654
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses332 / 37
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)369 / 369
History coverage112d
Avg bet$717
Trades / day8.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 369 Trades
no open positions (14 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $504 +$56 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $504 +$66 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $505 +$79 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $505 +$85 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $505 +$86 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $504 +$63 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $505 +$77 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $505 +$70 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $505 +$82 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $505 +$84 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $1,019 −$443 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $505 +$72 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $506 +$96 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $502 +$28 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $503 +$46 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $506 +$103 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $506 +$99 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $501 +$21 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $503 +$50 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $506 +$95 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $505 +$72 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $503 +$52 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $501 +$18 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $508 −$508 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $505 +$86 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $506 +$103 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $501 +$19 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $503 +$47 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $501 +$15 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $501 +$19 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $503 +$44 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 15 $501 +$20 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $505 +$85 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $503 +$46 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 15 $502 +$23 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $503 +$43 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $502 +$27 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $504 +$52 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $508 +$147 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $504 +$65 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $85 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $503 −$503 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $503 +$43 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $500 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $493 +$50 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $481 +$9 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $505 −$505 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $503 +$49 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $502 +$33 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $504 +$58 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $504 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $504 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $505 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $505 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $505 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $504 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $505 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $505 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $505 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $505 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $515 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $504 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $505 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $506 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $502 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $503 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $506 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $506 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $501 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $503 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $506 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $505 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $503 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $501 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $508 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $505 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $506 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $501 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $503 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1393 history records