Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:15:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BC 0xbcfb…6f13 crypto 327 markets active 5d ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$115 (-3%) realized −$115 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate52%169W / 158L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$10
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$153
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +1.5% -8.2% 60% 60% -12.6%
≤30d 30 -7.6% -16.4% 47% 43% -15.2%
≤90d 66 +0.7% -8.9% 50% 47% -21.6%
all 327 +1.0% -8.6% 52% 48% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 48% -12.8%
10% -17.4% 46% -21.1%
15% -25.3% 43% -28.8%
20% -32.7% 38% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$12 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$115
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses169 / 158
Open positions0
Markets (closed)327 / 327
History coverage99d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 327 Trades
no open positions (124 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$4 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 07 $3 +$3 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 07 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 06 $7 −$3 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 06 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 06 $2 +$2 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 06 $5 +$8 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 06 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 06 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 06 $4 +$3 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 06 $2 +$2 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 05 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 05 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 05 $1 +$1 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 05 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 05 $4 +$5 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET May 27 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET May 26 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET May 26 $4 +$5 +130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET May 18 $3 +$3 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET May 18 $8 +$13 +153%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET May 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET May 07 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET May 07 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET May 07 $14 −$8 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET May 07 $15 −$3 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET May 07 $1 +$1 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET May 07 $1 +$1 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Apr 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Apr 15 $1 +$2 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Apr 15 $2 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Apr 08 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Apr 08 $1 −$1 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Apr 08 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Apr 08 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Apr 08 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Apr 08 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Apr 08 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Apr 08 $1 −$1 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Down 73¢ $7 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $3 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $3 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET SELL Down 29¢ $5 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $2 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $4 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $3 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $3 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $2 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $5 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 774 history records