Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T08:13:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BC 0xbcfe…342e world 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 531d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$12 (-1%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate56%20W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$5
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 36% −$13
world 29% −$2
other 17% +$13
sports 17% −$12
economics 1% −$1
weather 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-3.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -3.8% -13.0% 33% 0% -12.9%
≤30d 12 +0.4% -9.1% 67% 0% -10.4%
≤90d 30 +1.8% -7.9% 57% 7% -9.6%
all 36 +6.3% -3.8% 56% 14% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.8% 14% -10.0%
10% -13.0% 11% -18.6%
15% -21.4% 6% -26.5%
20% -29.1% 3% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

531d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses20 / 16
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage531d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 40¢ 40¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 22 $45 −$5 -12%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $45 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $48 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $13 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 15 $48 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $29 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $4 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $13 $0 +4%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $2 $0 +9%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $37 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $47 −$1 -2%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 08 $5 $0 +0%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $23 −$1 -2%
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most Apr 24 $82 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 1080-1119 tweets in April 2026? Apr 23 $17 +$4 +24%
Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in April 2026? Apr 23 $33 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 1200-1239 tweets in April 2026? Apr 21 $75 +$3 +3%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun Apr 20 $102 −$11 -11%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 19 $14 +$6 +40%
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026? Apr 19 $26 +$1 +4%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 14 $228 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $229 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 13 $229 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 12 $10 −$1 -8%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 12 $100 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 12 $28 −$1 -2%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $140 $0 +0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $11 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 11 $253 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 10 $253 $0 +0%
Will Club Brugge advance to the Round of 16 in the 2024-25 UEFA Champi Feb 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 38-39°F on February 15? Feb 15 $5 +$1 +30%
Penguins vs. Flyers Feb 09 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the match between Celtic and Young Boys end in a draw? Feb 05 $11 +$2 +18%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian Presidential election by 10% or Jan 22 $13 −$1 -11%
Will Tottenham beat Liverpool? Jan 09 $2 +$5 +335%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $23 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $30 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 52¢ $40 10h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 59¢ $13 11h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 59¢ $32 11h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $6 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $22 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $21 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 56¢ $49 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $19 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $25 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $45 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $45 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $44 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 48¢ $39 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 48¢ $10 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 47¢ $48 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $5 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 76¢ $5 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 17¢ $4 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 17¢ $4 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.11 · official $7.11 (match) · 118 history records