Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T19:40:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BC 0xbcfe…c691 crypto 241 markets active 2h ago coverage 557d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1,679 (-1%) realized −$1,678 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -41% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate50%119W / 121L
Whale WR93%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$497per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$719now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$19
14 days−$198
30 days−$322
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$1,507
tech 8% −$26
economics 1% −$107
politics 1% +$29
other 1% −$29
sports 0% −$51
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-46.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 33 -30.1% -36.7% 70% 0% -10.9%
≤90d 72 -13.7% -21.9% 82% 0% -9.9%
all 240 -41.3% -46.9% 50% 0% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -46.9% 0% -10.8%
10% -51.9% 0% -19.3%
15% -56.6% 0% -27.1%
20% -60.8% 0% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -41% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 93% (≥$1,049) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -55% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$16 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

557d coverage
Net worth$719
Realized−$1,678
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses119 / 121
Whale WR (big bets)93%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)240 / 241
History coverage557d
Avg bet$497
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 240 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 29? No 100¢ 100¢ $720 $719 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 28? Jun 28 $718 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 27? Jun 27 $714 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $713 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $710 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $706 +$4 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $704 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $701 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $697 +$4 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $694 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $687 +$6 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $685 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $46 −$46 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 16? Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $180 −$175 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $74 −$74 -100%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 10? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $1,022 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $1,000 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $1,069 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $1,068 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $1,066 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $1,062 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $1,060 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $1,057 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $1,055 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $1,051 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 30? May 31 $1,049 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 28? May 30 $1,046 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 26? May 27 $1,040 +$6 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 24? May 25 $1,040 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 22? May 23 $1,039 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 20? May 21 $1,034 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 18? May 19 $1,033 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on May 16? May 17 $1,032 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on May 13? May 14 $1,123 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 11? May 12 $1,122 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 10? May 11 $1,120 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 8? May 09 $1,119 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 6? May 07 $1,118 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 5? May 06 $1,117 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 4? May 05 $1,116 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 3? May 04 $1,111 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 1? May 02 $1,100 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 29? Apr 30 $1,111 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 27? Apr 28 $1,102 +$9 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $720 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $718 22h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 27? BUY No 99¢ $714 47h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $713 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $710 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 24? BUY No 99¢ $706 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $704 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? BUY No 99¢ $701 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 99¢ $697 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $694 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $687 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $685 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $7 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $718.76 · official $718.76 (match) · 900 history records