Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:22:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

BD
0xbd04…fbb0
world · 196 markets active 4h ago
2.0score
+$354,570 +38%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$286,580 · open +$2,618
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY world specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$143,488
Realized+$286,580
Unrealized+$2,618
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses65 / 82
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions49
Markets (closed)147 / 196
Avg bet$4,790
Trades / day60.9
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit83%
Chart Positions 49 History 147 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$24,298
7 days+$51,237
14 days+$126,869
30 days+$286,765
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes 25¢ 46¢ $16,274 $30,040 +$13,766 (+85%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Yes 10¢ 17¢ $9,435 $15,597 +$6,162 (+65%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Yes 16¢ 38¢ $6,326 $14,794 +$8,468 (+134%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? No 35¢ 35¢ $11,296 $11,243 −$53 (-0%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $10,577 $9,764 −$813 (-8%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 46¢ 55¢ $6,495 $7,721 +$1,227 (+19%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 27¢ 30¢ $6,782 $7,414 +$632 (+9%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? No 46¢ 42¢ $7,325 $6,706 −$619 (-8%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 82¢ 97¢ $5,488 $6,498 +$1,011 (+18%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? No 20¢ 24¢ $4,935 $5,905 +$970 (+20%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $5,899 $5,574 −$325 (-6%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? No 29¢ 22¢ $6,249 $4,618 −$1,631 (-26%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Yes 13¢ 6¢ $8,338 $3,596 −$4,742 (-57%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? No 18¢ 18¢ $2,196 $2,177 −$19 (-1%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? No 43¢ 66¢ $910 $1,394 +$484 (+53%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? No 52¢ 95¢ $728 $1,333 +$604 (+83%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? No 31¢ 30¢ $1,230 $1,182 −$48 (-4%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Yes 40¢ 10¢ $3,942 $977 −$2,964 (-75%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Yes 19¢ 4¢ $4,777 $951 −$3,826 (-80%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Yes 29¢ 18¢ $1,438 $925 −$513 (-36%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Yes 6¢ 26¢ $149 $671 +$522 (+350%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Yes 15¢ 18¢ $496 $605 +$109 (+22%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Yes 8¢ 1¢ $4,294 $492 −$3,802 (-89%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No 6¢ 8¢ $332 $455 +$122 (+37%)
Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election? Yes 74¢ 81¢ $371 $407 +$36 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $13,785 +$4,540 +33%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $16,391 +$21,675 +132%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $967 −$967 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $964 −$961 -100%
Will David Flippo be the Republican nominee for NV-02? Jun 10 $139 +$66 +47%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $3,765 −$3,512 -93%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 09 $667 −$667 -100%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $16,151 +$6,378 +40%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 22, 2026? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $520 −$520 -100%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -96%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $21 −$20 -96%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $22 −$22 -96%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 09 $581 +$54 +9%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $11,050 −$1,571 -14%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $34,277 +$23,973 +70%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $6,900 +$8,621 +125%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 08 $569 −$548 -96%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $7,022 −$5,001 -71%
Iran closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 07 $1,797 +$191 +11%
Iran closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 07 $335 −$335 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 22? Jun 07 $67 −$67 -100%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 06 $685 −$2 -0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $47,545 +$3,455 +7%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 03 $65 −$63 -96%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 01 $372 −$372 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 01 $498 +$240 +48%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $48,899 +$48,515 +99%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? May 30 $1,422 +$457 +32%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 30 $54,265 +$10,969 +20%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 29 $6,049 +$2,665 +44%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $1,473 −$1,473 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? May 29 $47 −$45 -96%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 29 $42,289 +$11,200 +26%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? May 29 $435 −$14 -3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $2,088 +$97 +5%
Will 0 world records be broken at the 2026 Enhanced Games? May 29 $1,053 −$53 -5%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 28 $4,041 +$1,659 +41%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 28 $1,001 −$1,001 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 28 $11,584 −$826 -7%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $20,723 −$2,763 -13%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 27 $343 −$343 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? May 27 $522 −$479 -92%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 27 $155 −$155 -100%
Will Trump say "Iran" 10+ times during Cabinet meeting? May 27 $26 −$25 -97%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? May 27 $1,456 −$706 -48%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $40,734 +$3,332 +8%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 27 $7,968 +$16,197 +203%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? May 26 $180 −$180 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 82% +$284,972
politics 7% +$883
crypto 5% +$3,455
other 5% +$7,397
economics 1% −$4,433
finance 0% −$2,904
tech 0% −$102
sports 0% −$46
culture 0% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $2,602 3h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 35¢ $518 5h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 46¢ $3,207 5h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 46¢ $511 5h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 33¢ $302 5h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 33¢ $49 5h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 5h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 47¢ $1,188 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? BUY No 31¢ $1,230 5h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 33¢ $32 5h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY No 21¢ $66 5h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL Yes 32¢ $491 5h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 34¢ $2,264 5h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $2,017 6h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $142 6h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $482 6h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 7h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 7¢ $1,675 7h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 7h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $583 7h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $432 8h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 49¢ $1,816 9h
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $136 9h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $3,271 9h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $1,630 9h
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? BUY No 51¢ $171 9h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 12¢ $49 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $750 12h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $300 12h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $140 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+50.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -7.4% -16.2% 33% 29% +43.4%
≤30d 139 +70.4% +54.2% 43% 40% +61.6%
≤90d 147 +65.8% +50.0% 44% 41% +61.5%
all 147 +65.8% +50.0% 44% 41% +61.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover60.9 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +50.0% 41% +61.5%
10% +35.6% 39% +46.0%
15% ← realistic here +22.5% 35% +31.9%
20% +10.5% 31% +19.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $143,487.64 · official $143,807.49 (match) · 3401 history records